Summary:
Still overbought with some not so good signs so better not to bet heavily on the long side.
虽然intermediate-term是买信号,不过至少短期有pullback的需要,因此还是不建议重仓long。
2个短期看跌的理由:
T2103 from Telechart,Zweig Breadth Thrust,这个图的overbought很准。
T2121 from Telechart,13 Week New High/Low Ratio,这个overbought的程度比较extreme了。
6个not so good signs,they may or may not work though。
1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals,price up 3 days in a row while volume down 3 days in a row,这种pattern,pullback的几率非常高。
3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily),油超买,同样price up 4 days in a row while volume down 4 days in a row,很高几率是要pullback的。
3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily),米金free fall,oversold,应该要反弹了。3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min),30 min图上,反弹的理由应该更清楚些,oversold plus positive divergence。由于最近米金和大盘的反向关系,因此米金反弹是对大盘不利的。
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily),COMPQ今天涨了,但是SOX却大跌,这个不是好兆头。顺便说COMPQ的unfilled gaps也太多了。
5.3.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily),这两天的上涨,Financials lags,今天又整了个Bearish Tri Star,因此可能会进一步pullback。
Seasonality看,今后的一段时间不怎么bull friendly。
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