报告读后感

jsl

Summary:

1. 回调是正常的，健康的， 但要注意会不会Lower low

2. 中期信号没有转变，仍为买

3. TLT rally 对股市不利

4. Dollar continue to be strong. 超买严重

5. Nasdaq Composite，QQQ，注意STO很高， same for SMH

6. 感觉上可能还要继续回调

 

My VIew:

Today's pullback was expected, but there are two things I don't like. First, most of the selloff was during the end, second, it is more news driven than profit taking (which happened mostly in the morning). That is to say the selling may be quite acitve. Let's look at 3. and 4. above together, it is quite obvious that the underlying reason was that the ECB's admission of economic slowdown. This pushed euro down and dollar up in the relative sense. If you look the TLT intraday chart, you will notice that there was a jump in the price. I was a little puzzled by the fact that it happened more than half an hour after the news was out. Anyway, I believe it was the reason.

 

I do agree that the jump in TLT is bad for the stock market, but purely from an indicator point of view. As you may know, many asset managemnet instituitions have a division called "fix income". They handle a huge amount of money, but they stay within fix income and unlikely to cause any money flow between the bonds market and the stock market. There is another type of fund in the category of "asset allocation", "global macro", they are the major players that transfer money back and forth. However, in a event like this, very little marginal money will push the bond up. I don't think the event was caused by money flow. If you know the simple "Fed model", it is actually should be the other way around after the yield drop (bonds up). Because the drop of the yield will make the stock look more attractive if the stock market earnings yield doesn't drop at the same time. The so called stock risk primium is  "earnings yield - risk free bond yield". This model, in reality, doesn't work well, because "earnings yield" should be the future yield and hard to estimate.

 

So, why I treat TLT jump as a negative (I actually shoot out a post during the day)? It is because all these bond traders now agree that EU economy is in trouble and US economy will no longer get the help from outside. If that is what people are thinking, "earnings yield" should be revised down even more, but you can't observe it. This is the point.

 

As the SPX going futher to the tip of the triangle, I actually don't think it is wise to buy the dip and sell the bounce, if you are not confident about the direction in the next step, or at least say, that is not the bet you want to take. Since near the tip of the triangle, the break out risk increases, and the expected return drops as the normal range narrows.

 

I am somewhat disappoint by todays pattern, not the pullback itself. I hope NL is right and the puts I wrote go to zero!

 

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-8 00:49 编辑 ]

Cobra

，可以安心睡觉了。

lisa

revolver

Ding, and to add on. Shifting between bonds and stocks is "Asset Allocation", changes within the same asset class are normally "Sector Allocation" or "Security Selection". The asset allocation is considered a strategic and policy change and normally will only be reviewed at least every 6 months by top management or fund owner.

小咪

谢谢， 俺喜欢你的诗也喜欢的评论

MorganLeFay

评论写得也象诗.

jsl

先说说浆糊。Fisrt I asked myself: What am I looking for in the daily report? Is it a conclusion or something that helps me to come up with my own? Is the prediction more important than a carefully thought out reaction plan? Is there anything I overlooked that maybe very important? How does other people look at this market and what is the risk and what is the sentiment? If you get confused, maybe you are looking for something that wasn't there, or maybe you didn't do your part of the work.

summary with bias:
1. The overbought is still there
2. Oil and Dollar may threat the uptrend anytime
3. However, calling this the top of the market is still lack of strong evidence.

单句点评:
"俺的观念还是趋势反转前一般都会有climax run，啥时候大盘不顾一切的连涨4天以上，啥时候大盘才有可能到顶，所以下周大盘如果不连续上攻，很快就有回调的话，那大盘还是健康的，因此将是buy dip的好机会。"
If the market continue to move up in an unbelievable way, then it is a climax run. Otherwise, the mid-short term uptrend is still healthy and worth buying a dip.

My view:
We can't ignore the geopolitical events happened in the last three days. They sound bad but can be positive to the US market depending on how people think the level of tension will be and what the possible outcomes are likely. My concern is that the risk level is pretty high right now. Remember, you have the option not to play. Over the weekend, I came across some news about more silicon valley layoffs, not particularly encouraging for a rally.
Technically, there is still some room left on the upside. It is your decision whether to take it and at what risk.





[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-10 23:01 编辑 ]

balto

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-10 22:58 发表 先说说浆糊。Fisrt I asked myself: What am I looking for in the daily report? Is it a conclusion or something that helps me to come up with my own? Is the prediction more important than a carefully tho ...

oldfat

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-10 22:58 发表 先说说浆糊。Fisrt I asked myself: What am I looking for in the daily report? Is it a conclusion or something that helps me to come up with my own? Is the prediction more important than a carefully tho ...

会不会油和股市都涨？

olderfrog

老大觉不觉得，上周五大涨的理由其实有部分因为战争的原因。用阴谋论来理解的话，其实美金正是借战争来突破强大TA阻力的。
[ 本帖最后由 olderfrog 于 2008-8-10 23:13 编辑 ]

jsl

原帖由 oldfat 于 2008-8-10 23:06 发表 会不会油和股市都涨？

If the oil went up due to demand, then it is possible. If the market internal was strong to withstand other negative factors, it is also possible. Now I see that as less possible, not impossible.

jsl

原帖由 olderfrog 于 2008-8-10 23:09 发表 老大觉不觉得，上周五大涨的理由其实有部分因为战争的原因。用阴谋论来理解的话，其实美金正是借战争来突破强大TA阻力的。

It is something in my mind too. I almost wanted to speak it out on Friday, but the problem is this type of events are highly unpredictable, and different degree of conflictions may have opposite effects.

jsl

summary:

 

仍然是超买。

My understanding： there may be a pullback or reversal coming after a possible climax run. Either way, one needs to be cautious.

 

Gold and oil fell below support.

 

My view:

Currently, it is a high risk situation. Since S&P stays above 1300. We might have some good DT opportunities. It seems that the market is blind to the bad news, I anticipate a technical point combined with a fundamental release to revert the sentiment.

oldfat

zero

jsl

summary:
用班长自己的话说 ： "综上所述，这是个buyable dip，但前提条件是明天QQQQ能pullback，而不是疯长。"
today's pullback is not bad, but risk remains
XLF is tesing support line
dollar testing major resistance
oil may rebound

My view:
Today's pullback is not too bad, but fail to stay above 1300 is not a good sign to me. My optimistic prediction is that the market is going stay around 1300 for a while. My pessimistic view is that the market retreat back to 1260 area. I felt that the market ignored the bad news in stead of digesting them. I am not happy about that. On top of those, oil may come back to threat again

爱逛胡同

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-12 23:10 发表 summary:用班长自己的话说 ： "综上所述，这是个buyable dip，但前提条件是明天QQQQ能pullback，而不是疯长。"today's pullback is not bad, but risk remainsXLF is tesing support linedollar testing major resis ...

Oil may not have a stong come back until after Olympic,  when china lifts it's current restriction on pollution heavy manufacturer to resume it's normal productivities , and people start to  drive freely.....

 Hope this is not my wishful thinking.

Thanks for sharing....

KAI2002

我理解是XLF不能再跌，再跌就熊了。

jsl

原帖由 爱逛胡同 于 2008-8-12 23:23 发表 Oil may not have a stong come back until after Olympic, when china lifts it's current restriction on pollution heavy manufacturer to resume it's normal productivities , and people start to ...

The market is forward looking, so if you are right about the China demand change, then oil should rise now.

I don't think oil will spike again, if there is any rebound, it should be more technical, but when combined with dollar weakening, it may give
people some wrong impression. In my other posts, I expressed my concern over the brewing deflation pressure. Hope that won't come true.
in the next few days, I will search for clues from news rather than charts.

jsl

原帖由 KAI2002 于 2008-8-12 23:29 发表 我理解是XLF不能再跌，再跌就熊了。

Given the volatility, there isn't any serious pullback yet. I  think XLF can affort a little bit of more on the downside.