报告读后感

jsl

3.2.0 Japanese Yen (Daily)
我怎么觉得有些倒头肩的意思
3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily)
我认为近期走势或由Commodity，和Stock Market 共同决定

Summary:
JPY, VIX, TLT support 'buy dip' (I don't see these three as very strong indicators though)
Risk is shown in QQQQ/SMH overbought, S&P Bearish rising wedge, XLF ( for XLF, I don't see much risk, even if it goes lower)

My viwe:
S&P may retest 1300, if failed, which I see as more likely, then we might have a mild midterm pullback. I will continue to put more focus on the economic releases and judge if an initial mild pullback can turn into a sharp one.
[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-13 22:40 编辑 ]

hyf

jsl

原帖由 hyf 于 2008-8-13 22:46 发表

I am not in your shoes, so I can't tell how much risk you can take. Financials is not a sector that can give you a quick safe return, and those proshares are expensive to hold for long term. I can tell you that I sold small amount of puts of XLF strike at 18

hyf

gardener2000

Why sold XLF put instead of buying call?

mikeqc

班长帮手不在，我来乱说：time favors option writers.

gardener2000

Thank you!

爱逛胡同

jsl

summary:
基本上就是说 应该回调。回调也不是什么坏事

My view:

Tommorrow may be a quite day despite that it is OE day. from today's chart, the sentiment is pretty strong. spx is in the middle of major downtrend, near the end of the short term rising wedge. So next week is going to be interesting. Well, it is always the case. Oil is about to rebound. Gold is at a attractive level, though there is still the risk of going to 70. Again, bond, commodities, economic releases are the focus, and earnings reports can be ignored, unless you hold that specific stock.

ILoveRice

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-14 22:36 发表 summary:基本上就是说 应该回调。回调也不是什么坏事  ...

Ding!

jsl

班长把结论放在前面是很重要的，尤其是对一个Lengthy report 来说。

"周一大盘可能进一步回调，甚至下周大盘表现都会比较弱，但是俺不认为大盘到顶了，因此回调依然是buy dip的机会。

两个地方注意：1. 如果俺预测错误，下周不回调而继续上涨，那么不要追高，相反，是要锁定利润的时候。

"

Quote some other import sentences

“Buy dip最好不要在大盘猛烈下跌的当天进行，一定要看到反转的信号后才可以行动。”

"XLE来说可能也许大概是不错的买点"

"United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly)，从STO看，也是有下跌空间的样子。"

 

 

My view: Indeed, even though the chart looks like a rising wedge, the break out can still be on the up side. In the last few days, the market internal didn't look bad from the intraday moves. On the other hand, if the money starts to flow back into commodity stocks (not commodities yet), I am not sure the net effect should be positive or not. If the market sentiment continue to be strong with no selloff in tech, retail or financial, then commodity sock rally will push the market into the 1310 region again. Otherwise, we will get a mild pullback (initially).

 

So, I would like to trade with limited amount of budge in the near future.  There should be more opportunities ahead. 

mikeqc

这个一定要顶！

 

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-17 13:50 发表 There should be more opportunities ahead.

jilier

"On the other hand, if the money starts to flow back into commodity stocks (not commodities yet), I am not sure the net effect should be positive or not. If the market sentiment continue to be strong with no selloff in tech, retail or financial, then commodity sock rally will push the market into the 1310 region again. ..."

 

We need to keep an close eye on those commodities stocks.

jsl

有事，来个短的

Summary:

Market is still above the support, so theoretically healthy. 如果破位，就不好玩了。

 

My View:

More likely to break down here, but a short term bounce will follow.

TLT can drop if the commodities rise.

I short FXI and EWH, and am looking for exit towards the end of this drop.

jsl

以为老蛇今天要缺席，我多侃了两句

 

Summary:

班长忧心重重，感到牛势渐衰，虽然明天有反弹的可能

 

My view：

1. GLD find its support here. Oil is about the same. The possibility of a short term strong rally is not high, so we don't have to worry too much about its being a trigger of large scale sell-off, unless there is an unpredicted supply shock on oil.

 

2. TLT seemed to be topped out, mainly due to the commodity strength. Deteriating economic condition should cushion on the downside.

 

3. The market is not ready to drop further. In a very short term,  it is oversold, I would like to see a one day or two day bounce. Assuming there will be no semi-major accumulation day, then short on the rally is ok for ST.

 

4. If the SPX pullback to the 1250 level, buying the dip for a short term play sounds safe (YMYD)

 

5. Qs is still in a good shape judging from the chart. However, I don't see fundamental support.

 

6. 那么明天最可能的走势是什么呢？开盘中小涨，盘中回落，收小涨。

 

说给有心人：

现在，阻力重重 是 心魔重重

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-20 00:15 编辑 ]

jsl

再加一句，做熊还是要谨慎的。

jsl

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-20 00:12 发表 开盘中小涨，盘中回落，收小涨...

 

老青蛙不在，否则他的MP一定拍的很舒服，唉

goodmood

刚刚看到你昨天的预测，太牛了！大牛，说说明后天吧，小牛坐不住了。

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-20 18:04 发表 老青蛙不在，否则他的MP一定拍的很舒服，唉

jsl

summary:

班长简单说了说如何从TA中找Leading info, 和处理钝化

看看 VIX，也许会给后面有好提示

TLT 要跌，是Stock up 的信号

QQQQ 短期买，中期卖

NYSE High-Low Index 支持反弹

 

My View,

Today, the market showed some strength. Commodities stocks are likely to participate a small rally. Given the market sentiment is ‘reluctant to sell', we should see a tepid up day tomorrow. Again we might see a little bit strength in the morning and pullback afterwards.

However, tomorrow's economic release if pretty important, things can change just during your walking away to prepare some strong coffee.

oldfat

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-20 23:08 发表 summary: 班长简单说了说如何从TA中找Leading info, 和处理钝化 看看 VIX，也许会给后面有好提示 TLT 要跌，是Stock up 的信号 QQQQ 短期买，中期卖 NYSE High-Low Index 支持反弹   My View, Today, t ...

thanks