11/15/2010 大盘回顾 （SPX Lower Close Ahead?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is down. I hold partial short overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met not because it’s safe to do so. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 11/14,11/26 11/21 : 11/22 Next pivot date: 11/24 – 11/26

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. 11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 11/12 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 11/05 Market Recap: 70%+ chances SPX will close below 1225 on weekly chart within 2 weeks. 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: SPX new high while NYMO is negative, topped? 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish reversal day, so topped? 8.1.4 Normalized CPC: A little low. 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line breakout confirmed, so topped?  0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Too high, so topped? 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Descending Triangle, target $118.37. 11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high. *11/15 Market Recap: SPX down 3 consecutive days means lower close ahead. *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model *Long if up day tomorrow, the stop loss will be 1.9*ATR(10). NYMO Sell 11/12 S 2*ATR(10) Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE LOWER SPX CLOSE AHEAD BUT THE SPX 11/05 HIGH MIGHT BE TESTED AS WELL

 

两个结论：

1. 11/12 Market Recap里提到的，77% chances the SPX 11/05 high will be revisited继续有效。
2. SPX lower close ahead的可能性很大(either after the retest of the SPX 11/05 high or continue down from here)。

理由见下图，SPX down 3 days in a row，从过去的pattern看，a lower close ahead is almost guaranteed，但是因为SPX这次down 3 days in a row的pullback幅度很小，plus 11/12 Market Recap的统计，因此看起来retest the SPX 11/05 high的可能性很大(either higher high or a little bit lower high)。

 

 

其他没啥说的，market目前的pattern可上可下，要看明天了。Gap up huge tomorrow morning，则很可能bottom was in了，而如果red day again tomorrow，buy tomorrow close and sell at the very first green day close since 1991, you have 79% winning rate。

 

 

0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield，这个提一下，因为有读者问到，ROC(30) >= 9，在过去都意味着market top，参见8.2.1a Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2001-2004 and 8.2.1b Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2005-2008，这个信号还是相当可靠的，问题是，我不sure，在Fed这种大规模Quantitative Easing的情况下，这个信号是否还能工作(for why, if you still are interested, take a look at 8.1.7 Gold vs Oil, basically it relates to whether we’re in an inflation environment)，we’ll have to wait and see。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE FIRST 2.5%+ PULLBACK AFTER A 40+ STRAIGHT UP TRADING DAYS WAS USUALLY A BUY

 

See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, BULLISH FRIDAY, BULLISH THE WHOLE WEEK

 

See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.

 

For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	10/15 L
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM		*Black bar on multiple support, rebound?
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA		Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful.
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	08/31 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		ChiOsc is too low.
TLT Weekly	DOWN	%B is a little too low.
FXE		Broadening Top? The breakout is bilateral, so wait.
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	10/29 L
GDX Weekly	UP	BPGDM and GDX:SPX both are too high. Pullback?
USO		*Black bar on multiple support, rebound?
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP	%B is too high with negative divergence.
XLF	10/15 L	Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74.
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	11/02 L
XLB Weekly	UP	XLB:SPX a little too high.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

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