Current Market View 2008-05-02 19:25:51 来源: 股帝 于 08-05-02 19:29:08
All indices have hit their 200 MA and yet the bullish sentiment has
been inching higher and higher everyday. Media is painting a very rosy
picture for the economy. Do I trust this rally? Not at all. This bear
rally is slowly turning into a suckers rally and it's very unwise to
chase this rally at this stage. It's very rare for all indices to hit
the 200 MA resistance without pulling back and I do not think this
rally will be an exception.
While we should not be too persimistic about the economy, it would be
very unwise to be blindly optimistic. From the earning reports of
Mastercard and Visa, one would assume that the economy is doing very
well. Why? The consumer credit card spending is up about 10% so far
this year. However, looking deep down in the number, you will see that,
American consumers are putting more and more their daily expenses onto
their credit card loans. That implies that the consumers are very
stretched out. To prove this fact, look no further than American
Express. Unlike Mastercard and Visa, which are simply card issuers that
charge transaction fees, American Express is a card issuer that also
carries the credit card debts. American Express just announced that,
they will add another 800 million dollars into their reserve to prepare
for the credit default. That's an indication that the next round of
financial crisis, the credit defaults is on the horizon. Consumer
spending accounts for two third of the US economy and as long as the
consumers are stretching out, the fuel for economy recovery will be
lacking.
What the Fed has done so far has helped to stabilize the U.S. financial
system and lower the immediate damage to the economy. However, the
money that was injected by the Fed will not, as people expected, get
back to the housing market or be used to pump up the consumer spending.
Instead, it's very likely that, those money will be used to generate
another bubble, most likely a commodity bubble. Unfortunately, a
commodity bubble will be very counter productive to the US economy and
in turn, will drag down the stock market.
Before there is strong evidence indicating that this is a soft landing,
it's very important to preserve our capital. That does not mean that we
should not follow the trend and trade stocks with the money that we can
tolerate to lose. However, it's very important to not be blindsided by
the rosy economy and market portraits painted by Wall Street.
By the way, a lot of people do not realize that, the Federal Reserve is
not a Federal agency. Instead, it's a privately owned financial entity.
I don't want to go into too much detail into it for now. However, it's
very naive to trust everything being illustrated by the Fed and it's
especially dangerous to count on the data from the Fed to make your
investment decisions. Always remember, it's all a game.
发信人: coke1 (coke), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Coke loaded pot already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 2 23:36:27 2008)
huh? please don't scare me. Never go all in on anything.
I didn't go all in ya. 176.3 was about 20% from the high, I figured the
correction should be almost over under normal circumstance.I was prepared to
average down though.
However, if it occurred because of longer term sector rotation, that's a
different story.. Right now, I don't see evidence of that.
In fact, I would expect most of the old theme to resume probably as soon as
next week (although I would like to see more confirmation next week)
发信人: coke1 (coke), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Coke loaded pot already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 2 23:47:43 2008)
still $100 as the first target
【 在 stockhero (stockloser) 的大作中提到: 】
: thanks coke.
: What do you mean by old theme to resume? All indices down while commodity
up
: ? How do you think of DRYS at this moment?
发信人: coke1 (coke), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Coke loaded pot already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat May 3 12:15:50 2008)
You can tell that it does look like $100 can be reached quite easily in a
couple of weeks.
However, that is true only if the market sentiment overall remains positive
through the next couple of weeks and no severe sector rotation out of
commodity-related stocks.
发信人: coke1 (coke), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Coke loaded pot already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat May 3 13:11:30 2008)
oh? sorry. too many pms. and sometimes, the pms don't show up until months
later (I think it's because they came in when the mailbox was full)
Anyway, for dryshipping discussions, www.trader1688.com has had at least 3
long threads that have gone over many details about it since about march
last year. Almost everything you need to know about dry shipping is there.
you can search for "shipping" ,"干船"，or something like "船越来越多"
发信人: psp (I love psp), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: long fslr
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu May 1 17:44:51 2008)
xi,xi, you are wrong, that long is DT only, my call was out @13.7, and
bought may 260 put 11.1, FSLR has no support before 200
【 在 silkroad77 (丝路) 的大作中提到: 】
: 吓得我赶快把fslr的short给出了。赚了几顿buffet，也算不错了.
You are wrong. if MSFT gives up internet market, eventually it will be killed by GOOG.
Both Ballmer and Gates are smarter than us. They really have good
long-term sense. Otherwise, they would not kill Netscape long time ago.
Did you remember a concept called Net PC from oracle? That would be a
disaster for MSFT, if it was successfully launched. Fortunately, due to
bandwidth and other resource limitations, the project failed. But it
does not mean GOOG will not do the same thing again.
The reason MSFT wants to buy YHOO is to have chance to compete with GOOG, once Net PC concept comes back.
They want to buy sth. at least 20% below fair value stock, especially
when it is ride down. So I think Yhoo will be around 20 before bargain
hunter kicking in. And previous Yhoo stock value has reflected the
options Yahoo have(like use google's tech). so when It really happens,
it won't be the 70% percent difference like you mentioned. it will be
more like 40%. so 20 * 1.4 = 28 is about the fair value when you think
about it because after that yahoo is no longer a game player any more.
which will be discounted.
hehe. you know nothing about finance and on-line/search biz.
1. yahoo valued 31. if you get rid of current china/japan value which
is about 11~14. yahoo is valued at 17~20. the real p/e is about 20+
actually.
that is a steal for msft both finacially and strategically.
发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock
标 题: Intermediate-term Rollover of the Market
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon May 5 00:06:20 2008)
S&P over 1400, DJIA finally closed over 13,000. Nasdaq is leading the way.
VIX fell to 18, a rising bank index, the SOX over 400. GOOG now the datling
and POT the loser. Market looks very bullish recently.
What concerns me here is low equity put/call ratio with the reading of 58%,
which is lower than 59% reading of April 18. Following 59% reading, S&P
loses 15 points in two days. All other readings lower than 58% early this
year and late last year all happen to be relative high of the market.This
means market may show too mcuh enthusiasm. A market correction will happen
in early May as I expressed last week.
With the Fed out of the way, major earning reports over and no big economic
reports on the horizon, the market is looking for catalysts to drive the
next move. Seasonally, things begin to weaken at this point.
But I don't think we will have persistent downturn and it may just be a
correction. One reason is that the market's recent strength has bolstered
sentiment and is causing plenty of worry about being underinvested.
--
发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Intermediate-term Rollover of the Market
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon May 5 00:41:51 2008)
One reason I still hold long term bullish view is that the worst in credit
market may be over. Goldman already closed all their mortgage paper short
positions. Hedge funds that still bet on credit default may end it up
providing upside support for the market.
--
发信人: ibeyond (hello), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Intermediate-term Rollover of the Market
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon May 5 00:47:32 2008)
I still believe long term bearish until we see commodities go down hill.
Worst Credit crunch might be temporarily over. However, market has not
priced in inflation yet...
【 在 eric717 (eric) 的大作中提到: 】
: One reason I still hold long term bullish view is that the worst in credit
: market may be over. Goldman already closed all their mortgage paper short
: positions. Hedge funds that still bet on credit default may end it up
: providing upside support for the market.
发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Intermediate-term Rollover of the Market
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon May 5 00:57:27 2008)
Recent market downturn in first three mont of the year was primarily due to
the concern of breakdown of financial system and credit market not high
commodity price. The impact of commodity price on economy is not a one-way
train. When commodity price runs up too high and slows down the economy, it
will affect the demand on commodities and correct their price.
--
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发表于 2008-5-2 06:00 PM
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