Short term bearish and intermediate term bullish

csw2002

The study I posted here http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... &extra=page%3D1 is still in effect as we did not close below 1247 today. I expect another visit by Monday. Also, Frank from Trading the Odds has presented a study showing that the low is not in yet http://www.tradingtheodds.com/20 ... eak-bls-job-report/

What can throw a spanner in the works is the latest CME requirement posted after market close today that all maintenance margin be increased to the same amount as initial margin. I would expect a mad scramble for those whose positions that are under water (hence requiring maintenance margin top-ups) to close out positions. The effect would be quite minor for those who are trading the big SP contracts since they are the big money. On the other hand, those trading ES and other mini contracts could be impacted and especially those who are classified as non-reportable by CFTC. Given the latest CFTC COTS report showing ES non-reportable as 268757 long vs 316396 short (do note that this number is as of close of Tuesday Nov 1st and since then a lot of shorts may have covered), we may have a short term pop coming in Globex Sunday night and Early Monday morning.

On intermediate term, I am still bullish because of elevated VIX showing an excessive positioning for puts despite a month long rally.

George25

dsp

ruoli

silicon_beaver

LZ,

Could I understand this way,
1247 is under 1254 (fib 50.0%, 1292.66        to 1215.42, a ST time frame). hence ST bearish.
1247 is above 1241 (fib 23.6%, 1292.66        to 1074.77,  a intermediate term  time frame). hence intermediate term bullish.

csw2002

回复 silicon_beaver 的帖子

I don't care about Fib and it doesn't work. A lot of patterns out there, such as Fib/EW are what I call magic. People have bias when they see some of the patterns work sometime - this is called selective bias in psychology - you remember the instances when something worked but not when it didn't. That is to say, there are as many instances that you see Fib level works as they don't. It's a coin flip - it does not give you edge at all.

I personally find market structure works and sentiment study works.

netbanker

did you buy internal report from Frank?

shyshark

Forevergreen

GoldenRatio

QWE

csw2002 发表于 2011-11-4 23:35
The study I posted here http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... &extra=page%3D1 is sti ...

On intermediate term, I am still bullish because of elevated VIX showing an excessive positioning for puts despite a month long rally.

这么多PUT，会不会是因为最近半个月高位置新建立的PUT仓位，10月17日以来，大盘震荡向上爬，可是VIX一直不肯下来，而是震荡并有逐步向上的趋势。我看大盘不太可能继续向上升了，也许会平行震荡一段。

ctcld

谢谢分享。

knock

atrader

cat2011

匪兵甲

acoust

李隆基

trueself

wyemlyy

csw2002 发表于 2011-11-4 22:35
The study I posted here http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=147534&extra=page%3D1 is sti ...

今天还是没CLOSE在1248以下，这个统计是不是就算作废了？