报告读后感

jsl · 发表于 2008-7-13 04:10 PM

老大的原贴后面总是滔滔江水，所以。。。

老大说“close”正和我旁门左道的预测相符。

1.0.1 这条长线也是我心理支柱之一

1.2.1 看上去也是反弹在即。第一弹虽可能快速，但因该短命，即沿着下沿跳一下或两下来筑底

0.0.4 我不担心QQQQ的强势，Industry trends last alot longer than stock trends. Technology 的转型使得它逐渐成为某种必需品。另外它的强势也可以以其他indices的强烈反弹而淡化（短期内可能性不大）

3.1.0 I am more concerned with inflation rather than dollar strength, though those two are correlated. I don't believe other currencies can stay much stronger with global high inflation. So indeed, gold is a better choice.

3.0.3 At this point, the fall of the stock is unlikely driven by aggresive asset allocation, so it is not hard to understand the bond sell off. Inflation concern is going higher. Further rate cute is more like wishful thinking. Fix income risk rise.

最后狠狠的拍一下。MP痛了我可不管

Cobra · 发表于 2008-7-13 08:12 PM

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-7-13 17:10 发表老大的原贴后面总是滔滔江水，所以。。。老大说“close”正和我旁门左道的预测相符。 1.0.1 这条长线也是我心理支柱之一 1.2.1 看上去也是反弹在即。第一弹虽可能快速，但因该短命，即沿着下沿跳一下或两 ...

，Thanks。欢迎以后多发表高见！

大泡泡 · 发表于 2008-7-13 08:16 PM

靠，有赚俺一鼎。

jsl · 发表于 2008-7-13 11:29 PM

我们不应该盯着VIX，盼望着30+。随着股市长时间的震荡，人们已经渐渐适应了当前的风险。股市极速走低，也使得用Put对冲不划算。当然我也不是说VIX不可能再到30+，只是说把VIX与以前作绝对比较用来作为Trigger会逐渐钝化。而Cobra的Major Accumlation Day 和 Major Distribution Day等应该更值得关注。

另外我不想表现的太Bullish。一是因为原定目标还没完全到，二是经济不容乐观，三是风险逐渐趋于Binary，在其导致的震荡中应该有好入点。

我的投资理念又告诉我不要去抓绝对的底，分期分批。这大势确立之前，以Swing和write Option来降价成本。

感谢大炮铸鼎

ilvmm · 发表于 2008-7-14 12:01 AM

revolver · 发表于 2008-7-14 05:39 AM

DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!DingDingDing!!!

jsl · 发表于 2008-7-14 10:51 PM

"No Hopes as long as banks keep falling" very true. The market sell because people can not believe that the other parts of the economy can sustain with the financial system falling apart, which is also true. But you know what, stock market leads the economy, but only to the extends that there is a clear signal. So as long as we don't see terrible eco data in a short time frame, we will get some sort of bounce. Everything has too be reevaluated after that.

Cobra · 发表于 2008-7-14 11:04 PM

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-7-14 23:51 发表 "No Hopes as long as banks keep falling" very true. The market sell because people can not believe that the other parts of the economy can sustain with the financial system falling apart, which is ...

Hope so.

jsl · 发表于 2008-7-14 11:17 PM

I am shouting and trembling. As i said, the risk is turning into sort of binary event. Very hard to deal with. Hopefully, before it happens, I can build enough buffer for it through short term trading.

jsl · 发表于 2008-7-15 10:59 PM

用 USD/XJY 来看不同的Market Player 对大势的看法是很好的，但不认为是单向的Causality。今天油价下跌使得Weak $ 对Stock的影响不大。Bond微涨：对Inflation的恐惧有缓和，也由于Ben改口。

0.0.8 如果真的是接近底，此信号可能失灵，Conditional Probability！

1.2.1 支持跳一跳的想法

1.0.7 已经两天尾盘甩卖，明后两天会明显好转，如果同时创新低的话，可能就是底了（或第一个底）

3.4.1 Oil或在Form H&S。不知是左肩，头，还是右肩。

3.3.0 金子暂时还不敢买，等Stock有个像样的反弹再说。

Cobra · 发表于 2008-7-15 11:24 PM

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-7-15 23:59 发表用 USD/XJY 来看不同的Market Player 对大势的看法是很好的，但不认为是单向的Causality。今天油价下跌使得Weak $ 对Stock的影响不大。Bond微涨：对Inflation的恐惧有缓和，也由于Ben改口。 0.0.8 如果真的 ...

，thanks。

jsl · 发表于 2008-7-15 11:25 PM

Kami 说SPX很少底在100x上，说的不错。我总觉得此次下跌太快，却少横盘的时间，在这种情况下，在1200 上横盘震荡，然后下行探底，从图上看合理，但这样总觉得太平淡，不知道MM要走出一些什么样的Pattern来骗人。

jsl · 发表于 2008-7-16 10:39 PM

1.3.7 There is strong sampling bias in this chart and statistics. Price up Volume down(PuVd) is a typical short squeezind or skeptical buying setup. In either case, if the market does't get an equivalent negative shock, the sentiment tends to go upwards.
0.0.8 I don't quite understand what these means. I know Cobra explained sometime ago. Anybody donate a link? Anyway, I feel that a small put back/consolidation can improve this chart significantly, which will leave more room for the market to go up.
1.0.5 agree with this, the overhead resistence should not be taken out easily. I put the resistance at 1275.
5.3.0 XLF should consolidate here for a while, not much downside from the low if any.
3.4.1 really drop of oil may happen later of the year. It becomes a good trading vehicle for now.

点击 done!

balto · 发表于 2008-7-16 10:43 PM

点击 done!

6degrees · 发表于 2008-7-16 11:09 PM

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-7-14 00:29 发表我们不应该盯着VIX，盼望着30+。随着股市长时间的震荡，人们已经渐渐适应了当前的风险。股市极速走低，也使得用Put对冲不划算。当然我也不是说VIX不可能再到30+，只是说把VIX与以前作绝对比较用来作为Trigger会逐渐钝 ...

VIX有可能不再高了也有翻转。

另外，今天为什么有VIX达到38的图像：

http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?pg=ch&symb=VIX&time=1mo&freq=1dy&charts=0&comp=&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&ind_compind=&uf=0&lf=1&ma=0&maval=60

jsl · 发表于 2008-7-16 11:20 PM

原帖由 6degrees 于 2008-7-17 00:09 发表 VIX有可能不再高了也有翻转。另外，今天为什么有VIX达到38的图像： http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?pg=ch&symb=VIX&time=1mo&freq=1dy&charts=0&comp=&compidx=aaaaa%7E ...

In stock market, we need to trust our common sense. VIX reach 38 must be a data error or trade error. Whatever it is, we know we did not panic, that's important, that is what we are looking for from the VIX number. Don't get buried under a ton of numbers and charts. Just like if a small penetration of the support line is important or not, I don't think so.

Sometime, if I am scared by a short term event, I will go back to look at the weekly chart or monthly chart. I know I can handle that.

Good buddy, 6D

jsl · 发表于 2008-7-17 10:30 PM

每天都鸡蛋里挑骨头，不然就成MP贴了

1. 点击Done

2.抄底不是错,都是MM惹的祸。问题是如何操作。在接近底/顶的时候是很好的DT机会，因为Downside Risks are easier to estimate. 不需要tight stop loss. 在DT的同时可以积累仓位。当然去抓一个绝对的底就没意义了。

由于ER，TA预测没有太多好说的了，而且老大的TA is absolutely authantic.

我对明天Pullback的看法是，financials has run up too much, retailers and hotel casinos had a decent run. However, we have not seen convincing evidence that they are protected. A relief rally it is. Without industrials and other sectors following today, a pull back is imminent.

Oil will fight back, it is too early for it to fall. I could be wrong. People may be worriing about a 2006 oil disaster repeat.

Cobra · 发表于 2008-7-17 10:55 PM

，完全同意！

jsl · 发表于 2008-7-20 12:26 AM

被老大的图镇住了，不敢再就图讨论了。就对一些相关结论说说自己的看法。

先讨论一下 Pullback

1. Market is on a perfect pullback point. Since it is well expected, it will be a worth buying dip. However, if the market does a narrow range consolidation, there could a second wave of break-out buying and short squeeze. If nothing happens for longer than expected time, I will bet on a drop.

2. 同意QQQQ的走势不好，在我来看，从中长期讲对大盘是不利的。

3. Financials and consumers 急跌定底，成为震荡调整的主要目标， good for DT.

4. 虽说我也认为油要涨，由于Liquidity/Leverage/Money flow对投机者来说很重要，在当前股市动荡的时候，短期还是不好预计。

5. 美元虽说短期TA不利，之后还是可上可下，也就是说下降空间不大。

记着点击哟

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-7-20 01:27 编辑 ]

jsl · 发表于 2008-7-21 10:41 PM

老大没什么好说的，我也没有

1. pullback is expected. There was some reluctance to sell in the past couple of days, now we got the triggers. Trigger 有了，其他的就是点缀了。

2. how deep the pullback will be? Should not be too bad. The massive bounce was still vivid on our retina, so I don't expect two support lines got penetrated in one day. Have to see what other news we are going to have tommorrow.

3. GLD worth accumulating.

4. A pullback of financials is healthy.

5. Oil, not time for me to touch.

6 VIX 是该升一升了

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[灌水] 报告读后感

DingDingDing!!!

Weak US$ does no good to the stock market