大佬聊传统TA

ppteam

Fibonacci Retracements: Of course price is going to retrace between 1 and 100% before going up (if it is going up). The lines them selves are of ZERO, ZIP, NO SIGNIFICANCE. You might as well draw random lines and trade bounces off those.

Oscillators: As soon as the oscillators turn up guess what, you have weak bearish candles and/or bullish candles so what is the point?

Divergence: Again you are wasting your time reading oscillators that are based on price when you should be looking at what price its self is doing.

What about over bought and over sold? There is no such thing! Price can stay over bought or over sold for weeks on end! If price is going up then why are you looking to go short?

How about moving averages? They are just candles with less information!
Want to put a 12 MA on a 5 minute chart? Why, a 60 minute chart (12 * 5) will give you more information!

Shall we continue?

Go ahead and put: trend lines, channels, pitchforks, & fractals on your charts, but be honest with your self.
When you think you see a trade setup then delete the indicator and ask your self if it is price or the indicator doing the indicating.

Either you find that you have been trading with horse blinders on your whole trading life and take them off or you leave them on and try and figure out which indicator setting and combinations will work tomorrow.

What about chart formations / candle patterns? In trading, 1 + x does not always = 2; what a pattern is telling you is based on how the pattern is currently responding on the chart. Small patterns (1 to 3 bars) are best because you can adapt to alternate price reactions from the patterns faster and make adjustments to your strategy.

When some one is trading a pattern with a set strategy you are going to pick up on it and possibly place your entry orders near, on, or around their stops.

Discretionary traders are few and far between and they are the only traders who are not susceptible to counter attack.

I will tell you right now that if you are not a discretionary trader then your best chance is a rock solid money management where you leave your stops alone and take profit incrementally to reduce risk.

You might exit at 5p, 10p, and then hold the 3rd for a ride. If you have a 20p SL and you exit your first trade at 5p then your risk is reduced to 13.3 minus 1.6 or 11.7p. If you then take profit at 10p then your risk falls to 6.6 minus 5 or 1.6 pips. If you make 30 pips on the 3rd then you make 15 pips total compared to a risk between 1.6 and 11.7 pips or ~6.7 pips risk for >2 to 1 reward! Had you made 60 pips on your third then your profit would be 25 pips giving you 3.7 to 1 R/R.

Now tell me how many of you are hitting those ratios...be honest!

If you are a discretionary trader then I would recommend doing the opposite; scale into your trades and exit all at once.
With greater skill comes the ability to maneuver and reduce risk by the skillful application of multiple orders; some thing that would be dangerous
for the every day trader.

Diver

1# ppteam

ppteam

注意，这个是快跑的级别；不要没学会走路就想跑。

ppteam

"More times than not, when I enter a trade it reverses, hits my stop, reverses and goes way past my original entry."

"The problem contains the solution."

1) calculate your entry and stop price.

2) enter the trade at your STOP price.

CoolMax

"More times than not, when I enter a trade it reverses, hits my stop, reverses and goes way past my original entry."

"The problem contains the solution."

1) calculate your entry and stop price.
...
ppteam 发表于 2009-8-31 11:51 PM

This is good one!

Diffusion

"More times than not, when I enter a trade it reverses, hits my stop, reverses and goes way past my original entry."

"The problem contains the solution."

1) calculate your entry and stop price.
...
ppteam 发表于 2009-8-31 23:51

Nice, 有点理解了什么叫做"as a trader, you are not trading shares, you are trading people".

ppteam

I totally agree.
Every indicator is lagging, far better to just use R/S and candle. But it needs intensive training.

polopolo

For TA, the key is to detect the weakness and strength, so they will all be lagging, otherwise you are predicting not detecting.

IMHO lagging is not a problem, as long as it fits your trading timeframe. The key is how accurate they are. And they tend to become less reliable over time.

ppteam

ALWAYS TRADE WITH H1 CANDLE COLOR.

ppteam

从EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY中每个小时选一个TRADE，simple.

ppteam

Newton's First Law of Motion:

I. Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it.

Newton's Second Law of Motion:

II. The relationship between an object's mass m, its acceleration a, and the applied force F is F = ma. Acceleration and force are vectors in this law the direction of the force vector is the same as the Direction of the acceleration vector.

Newton's Third Law of Motion:

III. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Escape velocity

In physics, escape velocity is the speed where the kinetic energy of an object is equal to the magnitude of its gravitational potential energy.

It is commonly described as the speed needed to "break free" from a gravitational field (without any additional impulse). The term escape velocity can be considered a misnomer because it is actually a speed rather than a velocity, i.e. it specifies how fast the object must move but the direction of movement is irrelevant, unless "downward."

How can we use Millman's and Newton's laws to help us trade?

Price remains at rest until buyers and sellers act upon it.

Price channels until it escapes.


Buyers buy to:

1) enter a trade

2) cover a short for profit

3) cover a short for a loss


Sellers sell to:

1) enter a trade

2) sell for profit

3) sell for a loss


The previous candle's high represents the highest price buyers were willing to pay at that time.

The previous candle's low represents the lowest price sellers were willing to sell for at that time.

If price moves above the previous candle's high, either it will continue to go higher or it will reverse.

If price moves below the previous candle's low, either it will continue to go lower or it will reverse.

We can see price reverse when it makes lower highs and higher lows.

Price returns to the balance line to return a "balance" between buyers and sellers.

The first chart is the M5 and the second chart is the H1.

DO YOU SEE IT?

ppteam

body in direction of profit, wick in direction of loss.

No indicators, just horizontal lines. even works for ES

ppteam

Just trade away from 3

ppteam

btw, this is nothing to dowith wave. So this is not so called wave 3.

ppteam

Key reversal day

bullish to bearish:
if today's high is higher than yesterday's and today's close is lower than yesterday's, this is considered a Bearish Reversal Day, and bearish bias should be considered for tomorrow

bearish to bullish:
if today's low is lower than yesterday's and today's close is higher than yesterday's, this is considered a Bullish Reversal Day, and bullish bias should be considered for tomorrow.

ppteam

Use multimeter and multipair, it's nice tool.

ppteam

I haven't updated for a while....

******************

You could try and pay thousands of dollars for better trading methods, but I have been there done that and have not found any.

Making money is all about how skilled you are at turning your observations into words (a trading plan).

If you don't know what to look for or which questions to ask or how to turn your observations into a trading plan then you just need practice doing so.

What you don't need is some loser sitting you down in front of a chart teaching you how to interpret an oscillator and draw support and resistance lines for $3,500 (I have been scammed more than once unfortunately;)).

nomisy

NumberRules

i agree with those principles 110%. and i also think this 大佬 is ppt himself..

ppteam

19# NumberRules


I am not even close....