10/23/2009 大盘回顾 （Bearish Engulfing and Stick Sandwich）

Cobra

Summary:

Major intermediate trading signals are on the sell, but I'll give it another day.

Bearish Engulfing and Stick Sandwich pattern on SPY daily chart looks bearish.

A quick look at my version of "Buying Climaxes" chart.

	TREND	MOMENTUM	EMOTION	COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Up		Disbelieve
Intermediate	Up	Neutral	No argue	NYSI not confirming the up trend.
Short-term	*Down	Neutral
SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	INSTRUCTION	STOP LOSS	Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
ST Model	10/14 L	*Adjust Stop Loss	*10/13 Low
Reversal Bar				Stopped out with gain on 10/21.
NYMO Sell	10/21 S		10/21 High	*Improved setup, now the winning rate is 66% and the Gain/Loss Ratio is 4.5. Click the link to see more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SOME SELL SIGNALS BUT I'LL WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY

 

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，MACD and NYSI都是sell plus lots of negative divergences，看着不好，不过等周一再决定是否downgrade to intermediate-term down trend吧。

 

The bottom line还是介个：1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm，breadth extremely overbought and TRAN not confirming INDU's new high。I expect at least 10% correction。

 

SHORT-TERM: BEARISH ENGULFING AND STICK SANDWICH FORMED ON THE SPY DAILY CHART

 

周五又是个reversal day（Open high but close in red），下面介个图圈出了三月以来所有reversal day的情况，非常高的几率：consolidate then pullback。因此short-term也许还可能consolidate几天，也许consolidate已经结束了。

 

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，Bearish Engulfing and Stick Sandwich，看着比较bearish。After Bell Quick Summary里讲了，下面的那根线很重要，周一如果破了，就不好玩了，见图1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，那就是个1-2-3 formation，target要到105ish。当然牛牛也有机会弄个Symmetrical Triangle，因此其实胜负还难说，看周一吧。

 

下面介个图看一下，本周SPX太多股票reached Buying Climaxes了（红棒棒），not so good。定义在下面。顺便说，介个indicator是Investors Intelligence付费的service之一，俺自己做了一个，以后大家就不用付钱了，呵呵。

Buying & Selling Climaxes

Investors Intelligence uses this term to describe a more specific event which occurs over a one week period.

• A buying climax is where a stock makes a new 52 week high but then closes below the previous week’s close.
• A selling climax is where a stock makes a new 52 week low and then closes above the previous week’s close.

The reason that we use such a rigid definition for climaxes is that this enables us to classify accurately and consistently what is and what isn’t a climax. This is important as we maintain historic records of the climaxes generated each week and have noted that important market turning points are often accompanied by a sudden rise in the number of buying or selling climaxes.

A great example of this was in October 2002 when the Dow Industrials made its final low. At this point, our US Market Timing Service observed a massive increase in the number of US stocks generating selling climaxes. By communicating this to subscribers, we were able to provide a good early indication that a bounce was on the cards.

 

INTERESTING CHARTS:

 

3.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily)，Ascending Triangle，可能还会长，当然不一定是周一。

 

3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min)，Descending Triangle，可能会有pullback。

牛熊

First page

牛熊

是SAFA!真没想到

farshine

ROOKIE2

hifive

1st page!

sequoia

已晨勃开始，以缩阳结束，俗称阳痿之日。没有大量伟哥，短期内是勃不起来了。

zpwang

thanks

时利和

8# zpwang


等着做空呀, 等到花儿也泄了.

yaobooyao

老大自己做工具，真乃文武双全！
这叫“上得厅堂，下得厨房”，“诗词歌赋，琴棋书画，无一不晓”。

青蛙高喊： “老蛇辛苦了！”

老蛇回答：“为青蛙服务！”

同学们，这一问一答，看着是否有点儿耳熟？好像最近10月1号有过这么一出，不过是反过来的哈。。。

lwmm

ding

Diver

1# Cobra

summer123

flash

thanks very much

invest4long

oldpigwang

9# 时利和


等一天，花不会谢。

oldpigwang

1# Cobra


蛇老：Very sharp view.

stonehorse

Many thanks

NZX

rightonmoney