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SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
ST Model |
02/26 L |
*03/26 low |
*Adjust stop loss. |
Reversal Bar |
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NYMO Sell |
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Non-Stop |
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Newly added setup, will give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. |
OTHER ETFs |
TREND |
MACD |
COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. When TREND is up, use MACD buy, when TREND is down, use MACD sell. |
QQQQ |
UP |
SELL |
4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. |
IWM |
UP |
SELL |
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CHINA |
? |
BUY |
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EMERGING |
UP |
BUY |
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CANADA |
UP |
SELL |
4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): BPTSX is too high. |
BOND |
DOWN |
SELL |
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DOLLAR |
UP |
SELL |
Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. |
GOLD |
? |
BUY |
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GDX |
? |
BUY |
*2 reversal bars in a row, stalled under resistance, could pullback. |
OIL |
UP |
BUY |
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ENERGY |
UP |
BUY |
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FINANCIALS |
UP |
BUY |
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REITS |
UP |
SELL |
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MATERIALS |
UP |
BUY |
4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high. | |
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: APRIL IS THE BEST MONTH FOR THE DOW
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April is the best month for the Dow, average 1.9% gain since 1950. See 04/01 Market Recap for the April Seasonality chart.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: CYCLE TOP AROUND 04/01, COULD PULLBACK TO AROUND 04/12
See 04/01 Market Recap, originally I thought the market could be topped around 04/01 then pullback to around 04/12. I’ll give another day or two for this cycle to work out but looks like it could be wrong AGAIN.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: MORE BEARISH EXTREMES
Bearish extremes继续pile up。啥时候起作用?No idea,但是迟早会,而且结局不会pleasant。今天的After Bell Quick Summary没有看的,看一下吧,因为今天很特殊,是个All Up Day。
8.1.5 Normalized CPCE,所谓normalized,就是用MA(10)和MA(200)的spread取代absolute value,这样就eliminates the bias the equity put/call ratio exhibits depending on what type of market we are in,因此效果要比看CPCE MA(5) and MA(10)要好,当然因为不同的图反映的time frame不一样,所以我都列在上面的table里了。
Indicators at extremes from sentimentrader,这个图是说大约35%的sentimentrader indicators都at bearish extreme了,这是个相当高的值。
Smart money/dumb money confidence from sentimentrader, dumb money confidence as well as the spread between the smart money and dumb money is too high.
Rydex % of sectors with assets > MA(50) from sentimentrader,换句话说就是散户very牛。
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance. |