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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. recession that started in December 2007 ended in June 2009, according to the group charged with deciding when recessions begin and end.
The National Bureau of Economic Research said the economy bottomed out in June 2009, followed by a slow expansion. The group said the 18-month recession was the longest since the end of World War Two, outlasting a pair of 16-month slumps in 1973-75 and 1981-82.
Yet the NBER also cautioned that its findings bear no relation to the current state of the economy or represent a forecast about the future. If another downturn occurs in the near future, the NBER said, it would constitute a separate recession. See NBER statement.
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“In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity,” the NBER said. “Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.”
Although the U.S. economy expanded at a sharp 5.0% pace in the final three months of 2009, growth slowed to 3.7% in the first quarter and 1.6% in the second quarter to renew concerns about another downturn. The unemployment rate, now at 9.6%, has also remained stuck near a 27-high.
Most economists doubt the U.S. will plunge into another recession, but few expect growth to accelerate sharply again absent a big increase in hiring and consumer spending. Worried about the future, many Americans have cut spending to reduce their debt or increased their savings.
Ditto for business. The Federal Reserve reported on Friday that large U.S. companies continue to maintain a record $18.4 trillion stockpile of cash or other liquid investments. Lackluster business investment has been another drag on the economy. See related story on cash holdings. |
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