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[转贴] Mkt Rally Just Set-Up for Bigger 'Collapse'?

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发表于 2012-8-8 08:14 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


By Deepanshu Bagchee | CNBC – 2 hours 6 minutes ago

Global stocks have been rallying in recent weeks, climbing a "wall of worry" and confounding the bears, leading a number of strategists to warn the rally is unlikely to last and investors should remain cautious.

"I think we're in choppy waters and that continues. You've got to remember to sell if you own the stock market now," Charlie Morris, Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management told CNBC Europe's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday.

Morris says with bad news on the global economy over the past year, the market had "tried to collapse", but with so many people short stocks, the conditions hadn't been ripe. That, he says, could change after the current rally ends.

"You need to trip the market to have a proper collapse. So you almost need to set it up with a rally, get everyone excited and then it can fall," Morris said. "If there are risks, the risks to a very negative market come after this rally fades."

U.S. stocks gained for a third consecutive session on Tuesday with the S&P 500 finishing above 1400, while European stocks hit a 4-month high on expectations policymakers will soon decisively address the region's debt crisis. Asian stocks also hit a three-month high on Wednesday, with Japan's Nikkei breaking above its 75-day moving average.


Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index told CNBC on Tuesday that despite being bullish on the Dow for the past two weeks he was now growing concerned. He said there was a clear divergence between the technical indicators and the current price levels on longer-term charts for the Dow.

"Watch out for the end of this week, if we start seeing a negative close by the end of the week, that would suggest that next week, and the week after, we'll start pushing to the lower side."

Other market watchers have been warning that based on economic fundamentals, the current rally is irrational. "The rally on Friday after the release of the employment figures and the consumer confidence index really has no economic merit," Dan Geller, chief research officer of the Money Market Index economic index told CNBC Monday. (Related: Jittery Market Basics)


Barclays equity strategist Barry Knapp also pointed out in a note to clients on Wednesday that the underlying factors in terms of "expectations of U.S. and global growth deterioration, less accommodative monetary policy, earnings growth deceleration and elevated public policy uncertainty" were the same as they had been in the second quarter when U.S. stocks dropped 10 percent.

He said investors who were defensively positioned could buy call options on small cap stocks and select cyclical stocks to ensure they didn't lose out on the rally. But, he added: "We remain unconvinced that investors should chase the low volume 'wall of worry' August rally."

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发表于 2012-8-8 10:16 AM | 显示全部楼层
But TAs not over-bought yet.
could go higher.
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发表于 2012-8-8 10:21 AM | 显示全部楼层
silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-8-8 09:16 AM
But TAs not over-bought yet.
could go higher.

laoda, which indicator do you use for the over-bought?
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-8 10:25 AM | 显示全部楼层
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TA follows BUY/SELL volumn, momentant...,
TA  doesn't know economy, Europ, Election...
So,Mkt can go higher before collaps... one day, Greek dead, suddenly.
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发表于 2012-8-8 10:30 AM | 显示全部楼层
ysc 发表于 2012-8-8 08:21 AM
laoda, which indicator do you use for the over-bought?

SPX RSI not over 70 yet.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-8 10:47 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 oldpigwang 于 2012-8-8 06:11 PM 编辑

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From Apr 2012 to now, RSI never got a chance to go so high touching 70, but it did keep falling many times already.
Of course, collapse not yet, but it is already on the sight.
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发表于 2012-8-8 03:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2012-8-8 05:54 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 waterhouse 于 2012-8-8 06:59 PM 编辑

计划从1400开始,每涨10点就加一笔空单,今天按计划在1400进了第一笔
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发表于 2012-8-8 08:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2012-8-8 09:32 PM | 显示全部楼层
老猪王,大象不认识科斗文,到底你想说什么?昨晚我还想,老猪王好久没现身了,不是沙滩晒屁屁去了吧.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-9 12:21 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 oldpigwang 于 2012-8-9 01:27 AM 编辑

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现在明摆着是挤熊。蛇报告不是说了,Mutil year high 都可能吗。
你每10点挨一次挤啊。不干。
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-9 12:52 AM | 显示全部楼层
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象鼻子:你说的还正对。国庆节挣了一大笔,我便也放了假,去沙滩冲浪了。
这篇文章很有趣,说的是当前Rally 的真象=无可奈何。

MKT Rally, 应该不是经济好,就是业绩好, 再不就是QE 好。
而这次Rally,  什么都没有:经济不好,业绩不好, QE 没有希望,本来应该很悲观的,
却由于大批的烧,扑垫了底,不能往下走, 只能慢火炖熊掌,慢慢往上爬。
爬到那里是顶?或说顶在什么位置?
烧/扑都死光了,才是顶。
所以, 每隔10点就烧一把,实在是帮倒忙。

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发表于 2012-8-9 01:27 PM | 显示全部楼层
这样啊,只有等老猪王熬熬叫放火才能烧了。谢谢。
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发表于 2012-8-9 05:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 waterhouse 于 2012-8-9 06:25 PM 编辑
oldpigwang 发表于 2012-8-9 01:21 AM
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现在明摆着是挤熊。蛇报告不是说了,Mutil year high 都可能吗。


难道就这样一直往上走? 上次R2女侠预计8月会有一跌,我觉得从1400 开始往上做空,应该问题不大,迟早会有一跌的
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发表于 2012-8-13 12:36 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 waterhouse 于 2012-8-13 01:37 PM 编辑

今天把空单出了, 看不清楚, 出来观望 , 今天虽然跌了,但感觉死皮还是挺顽强的.
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 楼主| 发表于 2012-8-13 01:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 oldpigwang 于 2012-8-13 02:30 PM 编辑

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SPY travel between 1395~1405  for 5 days.  真的是慢火炖熊掌/牛蹄。Good for DT.
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发表于 2012-8-18 06:09 AM | 显示全部楼层
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