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[灌水] 下周FOMC会议,同时进入季报大潮

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发表于 2022-7-24 08:24 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


过去一周美国三大股指反弹超2%,其中标普500指数创近1个月来最佳表现。在诸多不确定性因素影响下,投资者试图确认6月美联储议息会议后的低点是否会成为今年市场的底部。

截至目前,美股财报季整体好于预期,成了投资者风险偏好改善的关键因素。根据财经数据提供商Refinitiv的数据,在标普500指数中已经公布财报的106家公司中,超过四分之三的公司公布的盈利高于分析师的预估。包括NFLX,TSLA在内的多家权重明星股业绩表现助力近期成长股跑赢市场。

美股反弹并未吸引资金大举回流。根据Refinitiv-Lipper的数据,在截至7月20日的一周内,美国股票基金录得净卖出84.5亿美元,创近五周最高纪录。投资者选择在议息会议前离场观望,这与此前美银美林公布的基金经理调查结果一致,出于对经济前景和政策不确定性的担忧,受访机构对股票的配置跌至2008年10月以来的最低水平,现金持有比例已经升至6%,创近21年新高。

在通胀和FED收紧银根以来,美国经济增长已经在放缓:房地产市场走软,科技公司抑制招聘,申请失业救济人数小幅上升。

下周FOMC的会议的结果会啥样?
涨3码,没啥好说的。相信市场已经做好了准备。

油价跌了,粮食危机基本可以排除,供应链也接上了,但是消费者别指望房价,超市的商品,餐厅消费等会回归。
所以PCE指数还会高高在上。也就是说,FED眼中的数据并不会明显改善。所以FED和拜登政府必须要打其他的牌,
才能使经济软着落。

美国财政部长珍妮特耶伦周日承认,美国正在经历经济“放缓”,但淡化了衰退的可能性,认为美国正处于经济快速增长后的“转型”时期。
而前财长萨默斯说,美国政府还可以采取更多措施来控制通货膨胀,这包括取消进口关税、降低药品价格、改进能源政策和降低预算赤字。

也就是说政府必须有所为。

下周比较重要的公司发布季报的有
JUL 26 盘后
MSFT
EPS预估 $2.28
一年前 $2.17

JUL 27 盘后
META
EPS预估 $2.51
一年前 $3.61

JUL 28 盘后
AAPL
EPS预估 $1.13
一年前 $1.30

AMZN
EPS预估 $0.15
一年前 $0.76

JUL 29 盘前
XOM
EPS预估 $3.53
一年前 $1.10

技术上看图,我觉得牛熊会在50天线附近墨迹再进入魔界。

SPY072222.png




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 楼主| 发表于 2022-7-26 03:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported quarterly earnings of $2.23 per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $2.30 by 3.04 percent. This is a 2.76 percent increase over earnings of $2.17 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $51.90 billion which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $52.47 billion by 1.09 percent. This is a 12.45 percent increase over sales of $46.15 billion the same period last year.

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 楼主| 发表于 2022-7-26 03:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-7-27 12:31 AM | 显示全部楼层
CFRA MAINTAINS BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF ALPHABET INC.

We keep our 12-month target at $130, on a P/E of 22x our 2023 EPS estimate, which compares to its 5- and 10-year historical forward average of 22.2x and 25.1x. We adjust our '22 EPS estimate to $5.20 from $5.48 and '23 to $5.90 from $6.25. GOOGL posts Q2 EPS of $1.21 vs. $1.36, missing the $1.29 consensus but better than feared. Sales rose 13% (up 16% ex. forex), slightly better than our view, driven by growth in Search (+14% and 58% of sales) and the cloud (+36% and 9% of sales). We believe GOOGL's results demonstrate that it is navigating an uncertain digital ad space better than others (e.g., SNAP and TWTR), as customers likely see greater ROI in Search. Cloud growth was in line with our view, but remains unprofitable (operating loss of $858 million in Q2, negative 14% operating margin), as GOOGL continues to invest responsibly. We see tighter ad budgets constraining YouTube growth (+5%), while Google Play fee changes hurt Other sales (-1%). We like aggressive buybacks as valuation appears enticing.
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 楼主| 发表于 2022-7-28 10:22 AM | 显示全部楼层
Meta Platforms reported second-quarter earnings late Wednesday that were dismal enough to add to the headwinds stocks were facing on Thursday. But the company's large losses in one key segment -- the metaverse -- shouldn't obscure that Wall Street remains upbeat on the company's prospects in that high-growth business.

Meta (ticker: META) reported a second-quarter per-share profit of $2.46 from revenue of $28.8 billion, which was down from $29.1 billion in the same quarter of 2021, representing the company's first-ever quarterly decline in sales. Wall Street had been expecting a per-share profit of $2.56 from revenue of $29 billion.

The forecast was even worse.Meta expects revenue of between $26 billion and $28.5 billion in the third quarter, while analysts' consensus forecast was for a figure near $31 billion.

Shares in the social-media giant behind Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp slumped 4% in U.S. premarket trading on Thursday. Investors have soured on the stock, reflecting the challenges Meta faces from a difficult advertising environment -- including the effects of Apple's (AAPL) privacy push for iPhone users and competition from TikTok and others.

On the surface, a hefty loss in Meta's Reality Labs segment -- which is focused on augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) hardware, software, and content -- looks like just one more thing to complain about in the company's earnings. But that business is special: The division is at the heart of the group's push to reinvent itself around the metaverse, which describes a future vision of the internet built on virtual worlds.

Analysts remain optimistic about growth in that area.

Reality Labs recorded an operating loss of $2.8 billion in the three months to the end of June -- wider than the $2.4 billion loss a year ago but down slightly from the $3 billion loss in the first three months of the year. Revenue of $452 million was up from $305 million in the same period a year prior, but down from $695 million in the first quarter of 2022.

"The metaverse is a massive opportunity," CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on the company's earnings call. "I feel even more strongly now that developing these platforms will unlock hundreds of billions of dollars, if not trillions, over time."

"This is obviously a very expensive undertaking over the next several years," the CEO added, but Wall Street seems to be taking Zuckerberg at his word that expensive growth now promises plentiful future profits.

"We believe Meta will continue to benefit from the long-term digital ad trend, participate in accelerated digital transformation, and innovate in the metaverse," Brian White, an analyst at Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., said in a note, trimming his price target on Meta to $230 from $250. While fear of a recession, regulatory headwinds, and market turmoil persist, White sees Meta as positioning itself to exit the downturn in a stronger position.

Youssef Squali, an analyst at Truist Securities, was even more upbeat, viewing the company's pivot to the metaverse as part of a series of successful reinventions, such as its focus on mobile in 2012 and social media stories in 2017.

"Meta should be able to reinvent itself through product innovation leveraging its massive scale and BS to reposition itself as a major player in the fast growing SF video, while further building commerce & metaverse as key pillars to engage younger audiences and re-accelerate growth in 2023," Squali wrote in a note.

Meta's metaverse is also getting attention from the cryptocurrency industry. Analysts see significant potential for the use of digital tokens in virtual worlds, with cryptos being used for payment for digital goods and services.

"The metaverse is a major economic opportunity, and we will keep an eye on the currencies and assets that may form a part of it in the future," Mike Crosbie, the chief business officer at crypto payments group Poundtoken, wrote in a note.

"We are keeping a particularly close eye on Meta Pay, and how it aims to be a wallet for the metaverse," Crosbie added. "In time, Meta will need to address which currencies will be adopted, and how customers who use them will be protected."

Crosbie noted that the earnings call made no comment on which currencies Meta Pay will support, and that Meta discontinued its own digital wallet, Novi, last year. Uncertainty over how Meta will handle cryptocurrencies may diminish as the metaverse develops, he said.
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