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道琼指数的历史研究

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发表于 2009-5-18 02:50 AM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


本帖最后由 dividend_growth 于 2009-5-18 03:52 编辑

最近老看到某些人散布谬论,说道琼指数里最早的公司大部分都破产了,现在俺就介绍一番最早道琼指数里的公司:

下面这个link列出了历史上道指所有的变化:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_components_of_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

咱们从1896年最早的12个成份股说起:

American Cotton Oil became Best Food in 1923, Corn Products Refining in 1958, and finally CPC International in 1969. In 1997, CPC spun off its corn-refining business as Corn Productions International (NYSE: CPO) and changed its name to Best Food again. In 2000, Best Food was acquired by Unilever (NYSE: UN) for $20.3 billion. UN currently has a market cap of $66.06 billion, and CPO has a market cap of $1.85 billion.

American Sugar became Amstar Holding in 1970, went private in 1984, and is now part of Sweden's Assa Abloy.

American Tobacco was broken up in 1911 into the American Tobacco, R.J. Reynold's Tobacco, Liggett & Myers Tobacco, and Lorillard. The American Tobacco part became American Brands in 1986 and Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) in 1997. It has a current market cap of $5.44 billion. R.J. Reynold's Tobacco was taken over in 1989 for $31.1 billion, adjusted for inflation the largest leveraged buyout ever. R.J. Reynold's went public again in 1999 and has a current market cap of $11.64 billion. Liggett & Myers Tobacco is now privately held and has about the same size as R.J. Reynold's. Lorillard (NYSE: LO) has a current market cap of $11.68 billion. It can be argued that American Tobacco is one of the best investments in US corporate history.

Chicago Gas became People's Gas Light and Coke Co in 1897 and then People's Energy Corp, an utility company, in 1980. In February 2007, People's Energy merged with Wisconsin Public Service Corp to form the Integrys Energy Group (NYSE: TEG). TEG has a market cap of $2.11 billion.

Distilling and Cattle Feeding became Distiller's Securities Corp in early 1900s. Two month after the prohibition passed, the company changed into US Food Products Corp and then National Distiller's and Chemical. It became Quantum Chemical Corp in 1989 and was bought out by Hanson PLC for $3.4 billion early 90s.

General Electric (NYSE: GE) has a current market cap of $136 billion.

Laclede (NYSE: LG) is a natural gas utility and has a current market cap of $695 million.

National Lead (NYSE: NL) now makes security products and has a current market cap of $472 million.

North American became a huge utility holding company by 1940, it had then a market cap of $2.3 billion (bigger than GE). In 1946, it was broken up by the SEC, and part of it turned into Ameren Corp (NYSE: AEE), First Energy Corp (NYSE: FE), PG&E Corp (NYSE: PCG), DTE Energy (NYSE: DTE), Wisconsin Energy Corp (NYSE: WEC), Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG), Cinergy Corp. Today, AEE has a market cap of $4.96 billion, FE $11.12 billion, PCG $13.11 billion, DTE $4.79 billion, WEC $4.36 billion, CEG $4.94 billoin, and Cinergy was taken over by Duke Energy in 2006.

Tenessee Coal & Iron was bought out by US Steel in 1907 at fire-sale prices. US Steel (NYSE: X), after many upheavals, has a current market cap of $3.15 billion.

US Leather liquidated itself in 1952, paying its shareholders $1.50 in cash plus stock in a company that soon became worthless.

US Rubber became Uniroyal in 1961 and went private in 1985.

除了US Leather的下场比较悲惨以外,道琼指数如果不是换来换去经常低卖高买的话,保留最原始12个股的回报可能还要高。看看俺能不能把这信息搞到手!
发表于 2009-5-18 04:05 AM | 显示全部楼层
    
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发表于 2009-5-18 11:28 AM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-18 07:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
道指的价格不包括分红。在1985年以前,美国股票的平均分红是每年4-8%,大部分时间是在4-6%的范围内波动,所以我们可以保守的假设1985年前的平均分红是5%。

每年5%有多少呢?大约15年2倍,30年4倍,45年8倍,60年16倍,75年32倍,90年64倍。

算股市的长期投资,不考虑分红是绝对不行的。俺经常看到某某画个S&P或Dow几百年的trendline,然后说要跌到哪里哪里为止,觉得非常可笑。诸不知,上面30年里分红很大一部分被公司直接回购股票代替了,所以股价本身当然上涨的快了。
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发表于 2009-5-18 07:06 PM | 显示全部楼层
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