430 果然是有说法

灯下黑

接连两周的点评都提到了430的点位，果不其然，这是个阻力点。



仔细追踪一下，原来多空双方早已在SPX 4300 的位置摆好了龙门阵。

“据期权分析商SpotGamma数据，超58000份标普500指数未平仓合约将于今日到期，且gamma strike峰值集中于4300点。
其中包括了30161份看涨期权与28047份看跌期权。

也就在上周5，2万亿美元期权到期，所以下跌也是意料之中。



那么问题来了，后面的路径如何？这中间少不了市场随基本面数据的变化，而MM也基本上根据Fibonacci的参照点位控盘。



下周比较重要的看点是老鲍代表FED在Jackson Hole 的发言，从中市场会摸清FED的VISION 以及9月的息口。

本人还是觉得老鲍会安抚全球的金融市场，防止美元进一步升值和欧元区衰退。激进加息会引起不稳定因素加剧。必须要平衡经济增长和通胀的关系。

抱残守缺，循序渐进是道家哲学的精髓，也是自然界演化的规律。

tcm328pan

xinxing

会安抚全球的金融市场，防止美元进一步升值和欧元区衰退。激进加息会引起不稳定因素加剧。必须要平衡经济增长和通胀的关系。

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By Wallace Witkowski

Nvidia on track to report quarterly sales below that of rival AMD for the first time since Q3 of 2014

Nvidia Corp. executives on late Wednesday forecast another revenue shortfall in the current quarter, after confirming an earlier warning by showing a sharp reduction in profit, while the chip maker assured analysts it was working its way through inventory prior to the release of its new chip architecture.

For the fiscal third, or current, quarter, Nvidia (NVDA) forecast revenue of $5.78 billion to $6.02 billion, while analysts surveyed by FactSet, on average, have forecast earnings of 85 cents a share on revenue of $6.91 billion.

"We expect gaming and pro visualization revenue to decline sequentially and OEM and channel partners reduce inventory levels to line with current levels of demand and prepare for our new products generation," Colette Kress, Nvidia's chief financial officer, told analysts on a conference call. "We expect that decline to be partially offset by sequential growth in automotive."

That puts Nvidia on track to report quarterly sales below that of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) for the first time since the third quarter of 2014. In its recent earnings report, AMD forecast third-quarter sales of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion Throughout the call, Nvidia executives stressed that supply-chain problems, and not demand, were the main culprits lowering the outlook.

"We are navigating our supply-chain transitions in a challenging macro environment and we will get through this," Jensen Huang, Nvidia's founder and chief executive, said in a statement, before the company addressed inventory issues.

"Our supply arrived a little bit late in the quarter for some of our key products that we needed to get out," Kress told analysts. "And putting that together caused some disruption in our logistics and distribution."

Nvidia also booked a $1.22 billion inventory charge for data-center and gaming products, given its revised expectations. The company said about $570 million of the charge is for inventory on hand and about $650 million of it is for inventory purchase obligations "in excess of our current demand projections."

"We reduced selling to let channel inventory correct and we've implemented programs with our partners to position the products in the channel in preparation for our next generation," Huang told analysts on the call. "All of this, we anticipate we're working towards a path to being in good shape going into next year. So that's what our game plan is."

Kress told MarketWatch in an interview that the company did not disclose the inventory split between data-center and gaming products, because the company values both segments differently

"We wanted folks to understand that prior-architecture chips and things that we looked at when we reassessed our estimates for demand going forward, and the inventory that we both had on hand and procured for, we took an adjustment," Kress told MarketWatch.

Trimming inventory is crucial as Nvidia is scheduled to release its next-generation "Lovelace" chip architecture this fall, to replace its "Ampere" architecture that was released in 2020.

Nvidia reported second-quarter net income of $656 million, or 26 cents a share, compared with $2.37 billion, or 94 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were 51 cents a share, compared with $1.04 a share in the year-ago period.

Revenue rose to $6.7 billion from $6.51 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Analysts had forecast 50 cents a share on revenue of $6.7 billion. Earlier in the month, Nvidia warned of a $1.4 billion revenue shortfall because of weak gaming sales. That's on top of the $500 million Nvidia pulled from its second-quarter revenue forecast because of the COVID lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine.

PC sales have pulled back considerably after a two-year surge, and spending on videogames and gear for them has also come back to earth. At the same time, drops in cryptocurrency prices have made mining less profitable; Nvidia cards have been used extensively to mine for Ethereum and other crypto.

Data-center sales rose 61% to $3.81 billion, while gaming sales declined 33% to $2.04 billion from a year ago.

"The decline in gaming revenue was sharper than anticipated, driven by both lower units and lower ASP's," said Kress. "Macroeconomic headwinds across the world drove a sudden slowdown in consumer demand."

"As noted last quarter, we had expected cryptocurrency mining to make a diminishing contribution to gaming demand, and we are unable to accurately quantify the extent to which reduced crypto mining contributed to the decline in gaming demand," Kress told analysts.

Analysts had forecast $2.02 billion in gaming sales and $3.81 billion in data-center sales, after updates following the earlier warning.

Shares declined 4.6% after hours, following a 0.2% rise in the regular session to close at $172.22.

Over the year, Nvidia shares have dropped 42%. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor Index is down 28% year to date, the S&P 500 index is down 13%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index is off 21%.

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　　周四，英伟达公布了第二季度业绩，其中，该公司警告称，游戏和PC市场的疲软将持续至第三季度，并正在努力减少库存，这令该股股价出现下跌，然而，有分析师指出，该股将迎来多个催化剂。

　　花旗分析师Atif Malik指出，随着今年晚些时候推出新产品，英伟达游戏业务将恢复增长。该分析师继续维持英伟达“买入”评级，但在业绩公布后，将目标价从285美元下调至248美元。

　　Malik在报告中写道：“虽然投资者希望英伟达能够下调数据中心指引，以降低与潜在的宏观经济相关企业风险，但我们预计，随着英伟达在新的Ada Lovelace产品推出之前完成库存调整，游戏业务将在第四季度恢复环比增长。”另外，该分析师还补充道，Hopper数据中心产品的发展“基本仍在正轨上”。

　　Malik指出，尽管英伟达在未来几个季度业绩将继续表现疲软，但英伟达将于9月19日-22日召开的GTC大会将有可能成为该股催化剂，因为人们对新的游戏产品抱有期望，这也是首席执行官黄仁勋在电话财报会议中提到的。

　　“游戏业务的基本面很强劲，”黄仁勋在电话会议上表示，“我们将在未来几个月内完成这项工作，并在明年推出新架构。我期待着在下个月的GTC大会上向所有人介绍更多关于这一工作的进展。”

　　瑞穗分析师Vijay Rakesh也给予了英伟达“买入”评级，并在业绩公布后将其目标价从250美元下调至225美元。他指出，业绩与先前预告的结果“一致”，数据中心的持续强势应该会缓解对短期游戏业务疲软的担忧。

　　Rakesh在报告中写道：“我们仍然认为英伟达处于有利地位，凭借其在AI领域的主导地位，我们估计其在GPU培训硬件和软件方面的份额将超过95%，并将持续稳定地执行路线图。短期内，投资者可能会担心数据中心在2023年上半年出现疲弱，但新的RTX40系列和H100 DC GPU产品应该有助于抵消这一不利影响。”

　　KeyBanc Capital分析师John Vinh则予以英伟达“增持”评级，目标价为230美元，该分析师指出，尽管第二季度的业绩与预告一致，且下一季度的指引也很疲弱，但投资者可以将其视为对股价下跌的解释。

　　Vinh表示：“数据中心和汽车业务继续增长，而库存费用表明，与前一代Ampere相关的数据中心增长预期有所放缓，而对下一代Hopper的预期仍然很高。”他补充道，该指引进一步降低了未来的预期。

灯下黑

410 到了