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发表于 2009-12-15 03:29 PM
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Buying CMBS is still too risky.
A closer look at Moody’s Delinquency Tracker for Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities provides little reason for optimism.
The delinquency rate of loans in US CMBS conduit deals reached 4.47% at the end of November, a 46-basis point increase over the month before, and the largest monthly increase yet of the economic downturn.
The report notes that the balance of delinquent CMBS loans stood at $6.7 billion in December of 2008 and has increased by more than $23 billion in the past twelve months.
The delinquency rate has now increased 29-fold over its low point of 0.22% reached in July 2007 - Moody’s Managing Director Nick Levidy
The delinquency rate on loans backed by hotel properties increased by 160 basis points during November, to end the month at 7.80%. Multifamily properties saw the second largest increase in its delinquency rate, increasing more than 90 points to 7.40%.
DQT Dec
Meanwhile, the delinquency rates on loans backed by industrial properties increased 28 basis points to 3.11%, while office property delinquency rate rose 25 points to 2.95%.
“As we pointed out in our recent Commercial Real Estate and CMBS outlook, the property sectors with the shortest lease terms have suffered the most so far in this downturn,” says Moody’s Levidy. "However, those sectors are also expected to be the first to recover.”
Four states—Nevada, Rhode Island, Arizona and Michigan–have delinquency rates over 10%, while all the other states have rates less than 8%, according to Moody’s. The four states, however, account for less than 7% of all outstanding loans. The two states with the largest shares of outstanding loans have rates lower than the country as a whole, California with a rate of 3.88% and New York at 2.47%. |
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