大盘信号：在怀疑中向上？

ctcld

The Bullish/Bearish Extreme lines are important in helping to gauge the relative maturity, and probable reversal, of the prevalent sentiment trend.





One of the things you'll note immediately when viewing the chart is that the P/C data tends to reach tops and bottoms before the volatility data.  Secondly, the volatility data often tends to overshoot the P/C data at peaks and troughs. One of the reasons for this is that trend changes aren't generally seen for what they are until well into the process.  For instance, after a prolonged period of selling, people approach the market more cautiously, and that bearishness takes longer to work itself off in Put pricing. Of course, the reverse is also true, and it's one of the reasons why many contrarians believe that the VIX and VXN are a good measure of complacency in the markets




The most important changes in trend occur when the ROCs for all three time frames are trending in the same direction.  Because the near-term ROC is more useful for short-term timing, there will always be a bit more whipsaw relative to the longer time frames.  What is most key is the position of the long-term ROC, since it defines the overriding trend.  For different reasons, the long-term ROC generally lags its faster and more recent counterparts, but when it makes a decided change of trend, it has the greatest significance and implications for the market.  So, when positioning short or long, you want to take note of where the long-term ROC is, and follow the nearer term ROCs as they move into overbought or oversold levels. Since these vary with the time frame, I periodically apply trendlines to note these extreme points when they occur.

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Kami

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--- 大盘信号：在怀疑中向上
Until all bears turn into bulls.   

dsp

Thanks. That is helpful.

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jasmine

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