which one is right -- Wave or 缠论级别?

austinjoe

There are many wavers hold this view for the SPX up run from 6/3//2012 low, it's a 5 wave rise, finished 1, 2, 3 and the current drop from 10/5 iis wave 4 which should be done on 10/26/2012 low 1403. They expect that SPX will make new high > 1474 on coming wave 5 up run. I borrowed a wave chart from Dr. Q. Wang showing this count -- look SPY wave count label.

However, from 缠论级别, this wave count does not match. The down run from 10/05 SPX 1471 should be on the same 级别 -- 30F as the rise from 6/3/2012 low SPX 1266. Right now, the 10/05 drop is still 5F级别, so the chance of SPX correction finished on last Friday and will make a new high > 1474 is very small.

We'll see how the market verify / judge 2 choice here. By end of next week, the answer will be clear. Will SPX keep making new low for this 5F级别 down run, or it starts the 5th wave up to new high? I'm a 缠论student and favor 缠论级别 will be right.

The reasons lies in the 2 缠论级别 chart -- the daily chart shows that strength from 06/04/12 low to 10/05/2012 is much weaker than the rise from 10/2011 low to 04/2012. The bold orange line are 30F级别走势, the down run from 10/05/2012 is the same 30F级别走势, and it's only 5F级别 now. The 10 min chart shows 5F级别走势 in red line, while numbers are 1F级别走势. The current 5F级别 down run is 2中枢 下跌趋势, the 2nd 5F中枢 is not finished yet as SPX is still swing around it in the past 2 days. The strength of 19-20 is far larger than 15-16 drop. Generally, SPX will have another leg drop off the 2nd 5F中枢, and when its strength is weaker than 19-20 -- it's a good buy point that SPX will due for a 5F up run.

Will the SPX 10/23 -- 10/26 4 days diamond consolidation serve as the trend reversal? There is small chance for bull here, it need to keep swing around the 2nd 5F中枢 for another 2-3 days to form another 3 1F走势 up /down/up to grow this 5F中枢 to 30F中枢 and then start heading north. Otherwise this diamond consolidation will be a continuation of the 10/05 SPX down run.

heheboy

虽然俺对缠论感冒，不过这贴有料，楼主不错。

bucks

kkkk

好贴

bucks

excellent analysis. I personally favor CHAN's theory.

one question: regarding  --- " Generally, SPX will have another leg drop off the 2nd 5F中枢, and when its strength is weaker than 19-20 -- it's a good buy point that SPX will due for a 5F up run" ----

Here you are talking about the 1st buy point. Does the line #25-#26 account for this down leg? Theoretically, no evidence to invalidate this presumption. The intraday reversal up on Friday also had taken the high of line#25, which may have strongly lifted this upward swing to the inception of a larger rally. The inevitable pullback or drop in next week will help us judge whether it's the 2nd or 3rd buy here. Even if should a new low be made, it's still eligible for being a 2nd buy in spite of a weak scenario.

austinjoe

25-26 is still zone swing. chan says it is not right to find divergency in zone swing, that is why so many people complain divergency not work at all. In fact, it is due to they compare the wrong leg so fooled themselves that divergency not work. The 2nd 5F zone has to end by either a 3rd buy or sell point, or grow up to 30F zone. As I said, bull still have chance to fight back by turn this 2 zone 5F down trend to a 30F zone swing on this mid term top processing. However, so far bull has not show enough strength yet and that gives bear the edge.
  
Based on chan theory, next 3 days is very important, bear needs to take 1396 to complete a top fracture on monthly chart, and form a bi on weekly chart. That is why I said by end of week, answer will be clear.

If you use chan, no matter which way market want to break, just watch 5F zone to see how it ends it's life and put your order. There are other TA indicators showing mid term top is already in. I will make another post when get home.

bucks

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-28 12:09 PM
25-26 is still zone swing. chan says it is not right to find divergency in zone swing, that is why s ...

thanks for the explanation. Look forward to more

hunting

austinjoe

There are the some TA indicators that showing the mid term top is already in. These chart not not made by me but from others that I borrowed. I'll list them here 1 by 1:

1st, Cobra's non-stop model chart -- http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/chartbook/197681529
You could find back to 2004 this non-stop mode system performance in 8.2.2a/2b/2c/2d/2e/2f/2g/2h..

austinjoe

2nd, John E. Tast SPY chart -- http://stockcharts.com/public/1173967/chartbook/260428132;

austinjoe

There are great similarity on SPY last week vs May 7-11, this chart credit goes to 山上白云泉 -- http://i45.tinypic.com/alixk9.png

austinjoe

NYA accumulation vs distribution shows we're still in distribution mode -- from Stocktiming. Cobra has posted in his weekend update -- http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=190876&extra=page%3D1

ethanlinear

敬佩老大。老大真是才华横着淌，堵都堵不住啊，

austinjoe

These 2 chart are from my ThinkOrSwim -- again I have to give credit to 山上白云泉 since she brought up these TA indicators to me, otherwise I would not have known most of them except few common one like RSI / MACD / ADX.

1> ADX just turned up cross DMI+, which indicates the down trend is in its early stage. This does not support wave 4 ends on 10/26/2012.

2> Look RMO indicator, the latest 3 top (9/14, 10/05, 10/18) has large SPY volume -- this indicates distribution from big fish, which confirm what NYA accumulation distribution chart from stocktiming. Market is in the start of the 调整, not end of it.

All the charts that I listed here does not support that SPX has finished its 调整 in wave 4 and start make a new high > 1474. Please be cautious if you're heavily long now. YMYD.

As a  缠论 student, there is no forecast / predict on market move -- only follow its track. The 10/26/2012 low 1403 is only 1F盘整背驰 inside its 5F中枢, a good test for bull's strength is whether it will touch 1410.34 next trading day. If Bull want to win, it has to break up 1417 and not dip back to touch it. While for bear to score, it needs to break down 1407 and never bounce back. The answer will be clear by next Friday.

ethanlinear

bucks

PFPF

chickencoop

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-29 01:36 AM
These 2 chart are from my ThinkOrSwim -- again I have to give credit to 山上白云泉 since she brought ...

Thanks for your excellent charts and analyses. By the way, how could I get the RMO indicator on thinkorswim? I couldn;t find it. Thanks again.

ethanlinear

老大，如果认为缠论orange line的第二腿还没有完，也就是说现在的回调是小（4），波图上看是（1）（2）（3）（4），还缺一个（5）。这个（5）是不是就不需要30分中枢了？谢谢

austinjoe

chickencoop 发表于 2012-10-30 12:30 PM
Thanks for your excellent charts and analyses. By the way, how could I get the RMO indicator on th ...

RMO is not build-in indicator in TOS. However, you could google "rmo indicator formula" and found it easily on the web. Here is the one that I used -- http://www.traderji.com/amibroker/12427-rmo-code-amibroker-4-9-a.html

SwingTrd1 = 100 * (Close - ((MA(C,2)+
MA(MA(C,2),2)+
MA(MA(MA(C,2),2),2) +
MA(MA(MA(MA(C,2),2),2),2) +
MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(C,2),2),2),2),2) +
MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(C,2),2),2),2),2),2) +
MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(C,2),2),2),2),2),2),2)+
MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(C,2),2),2),2),2),2),2),2)+
MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(C,2),2),2),2),2),2),2), 2),2)+
MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(MA(C,2),2),2),2),2),2), 2),2),2),2))
/10))/(HHV(C,10)-LLV(C,10));

RMO= EMA(SwingTrd1,81);

austinjoe

ethanlinear 发表于 2012-10-30 12:31 PM
老大，如果认为缠论orange line的第二腿还没有完，也就是说现在的回调是小（4），波图上看是（1）（2）（3） ...

Based on 缠论, the down run from Oct 5, 2012 should be at least a 30F走势 -- which should be same level as orange line on my daily chart. There will be a 30F中枢 for sure, which tells you that this down run will be made by minimum 3 5F走势, we are still in 1st 5F走势 and it's not done yet. It will be followed by a 5F走势 up and another 5F走势 down to construct a 30F走势. Myself is not a waver and just feel that these 5 wave up from June 4, 2012 low does not match 缠论. Market will be be the judge on which one is correct.