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本帖最后由 HappyMoney 于 2016-1-2 11:55 AM 编辑
新年快乐! 恭喜发财!
12/31/2015 closing bell ended the trading day, the week, the month, the quarter, and the year. It's the time to review the year of 2015. SPX in 2015 did a whole lot of nothing. In the last trading day, SPX tried very hard to stay above 2058, but sold off in the last 2 hours. It ended the year down 15 points or 0.73%. I think that spells weakness for the bulls. If they can't hold above flat-on-year mark during the Santa rally period, that seems bulls are running out of bullet. Now the yearly chart formed a doji after 6 positive years since 2008. Could that mark a turning point?
All the wall street firms forecast a positive year for 2016. Lowest is 2100, highest is 2325:
http://www.businessinsider.com/w ... t-forecasts-2015-11
I am not an economist, not even remotely close to. But I am willing to give a guess. My 2016 year end target on SPX is 1980, or -3% return. I guess SPX could trade between a range of 1750~2200 in next 12 months. This is a pure speculative guess, no any thesis behind it. It only reflects my bearish bias for 2016, and expectation of increasing volatility.
By the year end, there are only a handful stocks, so called "FANG" are making new highs and holding up the indexes. The A/D line is deteriorating. This is not a bullish sign. In 2014 & 2015, the first 3 days were down. Maybe this time we will see the same?
ES trade for Monday:
· I am leaning to bearish side, but open-minded to any possibilities.
· Above 2035~2037 can give bulls some hope. Resistance at 2054/2055, then 2064.
· Below 2025 could bring more sellers. The next support is around 2011.
望各位不吝赐教. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2016-1-2 11:51 AM
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发表于 2016-1-2 12:12 PM
发表于 2016-1-2 12:39 PM
