|
Summary:
The market could be at a cycle bottom so probably more upside ahead.
| |
TREND |
MOMENTUM |
EMOTION |
COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table. |
| Long-term |
Up |
|
Disbelieve |
|
| Intermediate |
Down |
Neutral |
|
|
| Short-term |
Down |
Neutral |
|
|
| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
INSTRUCTION |
STOP LOSS |
Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002. |
| ST Model |
11/30 L |
*Long intraday. |
1.5xATR(10) |
Use 2% as the stop loss for SPY.
No confidence in this trade. |
| Reversal Bar |
11/30 L |
*Long intraday. |
0.9xATR(10) |
Use 2% as the stop loss for SPY.
No confidence in this trade. |
| NYMO Sell |
11/24 S |
|
Breakeven |
|
| VIX ENV |
|
|
|
|
| Patterns ect. |
|
|
|
|
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BUILDING A TOP
维持building a top的forecast。详见11/27/2009 Market Recap。
2.8.0 SPX:CPCE，trend line broken，market有top的可能，看明天能否hold了。不过介个图最近不太好使，指示short-term top还行。
SHORT-TERM: COULD BE MORE REBOUND AHEAD
没有solid evidences，只是看起来牛牛稍微占优，could be more rebound ahead。
各指数daily图上连续2个reversal bar，因此反转向上的可能性大些。1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily)，介个图的reversal bars比较清楚，此外volume也比较promising。
0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals，今天的low看成10 day cycle low的话，那下个10 trading day可能就是up cycle了。
1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min)，看着也是cycle low的样子。
INTERESTING CHARTS:
由于说介个的人很多，所以也赶下时髦：看起来full moon都是bottom（From www.astrocycle.net），信不信由你啦，而12/2是full Moon。俺的看法是，full moon or new moon代表potential trend change，所以如果大盘反弹到12/2的话，到反而可能是market top。
介个图对熊熊有利，如果重复前三周的up huge on Monday then pullback the rest of the week的话。We'll see。
| 
狗仔卡
发表于 2009-11-30 08:10 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2009-11-30 08:11 PM
