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SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
Partial profits on 09/24. |
ST Model |
09/24 L |
Breakeven |
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SHORT-TERM: NO 2 CONSECUTIVE UP DAYS FOR 3 WEEKS, UPTREND IS WEAKENING
我在10/07 Market Recap里提到最近的huge up day (up more than 1.5%) simply had no follow-through thereafter,下面的图从另一个角度对比了when uptrend is young vs when uptrend is old的情形。很明显目前的上升动能正在减弱是不争的事实,a top of some kind is approaching。当然timing top是件很难的事情,因此我不是说要short,还是老话,don’t get too bullish。
1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min),negative divergence too large,因此看着比较bearish,不排除pullback to test price channel support的可能。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED
关于intermediate-term还是maintain bearish view。理由已经陆陆续续交待过了,下面简单的总结一下:
- As mentioned in 10/01 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
- As mentioned in 10/01 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
- As mentioned in 10/01 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
- As mentioned in 10/05 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.
下面的图是以上4大理由的update,供参考。其中关于off season vs earning season的统计分别来自最新的Bespoke and Sentimentrader report。
SEASONALITY: OCTOBER EXPIRATION MONAY WAS BULLISH, EXPIRATION DAY WAS BEARISH
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
- October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6.
For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update.
- Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- LA = Lateral Trend.
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