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楼主 |
发表于 2009-2-12 09:56 AM
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To be frank with you all, I am totally clueless at this point. Short-term market direction is anyone's guess. Ever since Chinese new Year, markets had a lot of whipsawing and haven't shown any clear trend. The most likely scenario before Feb OE is contiuation of current sideway action. I don't beleive that markets will create any new lows before going up. If Tuesday's market reaction is merely a way for investors to show their disappoinment in Geithner's lousy speech for lacking any roadmap and details in his banking plan, then they shouldn't shoot their own feet by seriously damaging an already beaten up stock market. It is possible for investors to push markets below 800 temporarily to put pressure on Geithner to come up detailed plans quickly. But With Obama's stimulus plan generating a lot of optimism (Isn't that what people voted him for, "Hope"?), there is no better time to have a strong bear makret rally. Whether this stimulus plan works or not is another question. Again I still believe SPX will go up to 1000 before making any new lows. But this whole process might take longer than I originally anticipated. |
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