每周外家搜集贴 -- 2008第19周

happylux

AAPL这种45度角的涨法，大盘前面必有暴跌
来源: 贼鸥 于 08-05-05 21:56:04
象07年2.27那种，牛牛放松警惕的时候。密切关注牛牛的舒适度指数。

xiaobailong

发信人: chinook (Base Loaded), 信区: Stock
标 题: 小心了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 6 09:18:43 2008)

空气里有种血腥的味道
--

xiaobailong

发信人: chinook (Base Loaded), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 小心了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 6 13:29:57 2008)

Added NQ short, small AAPL put，plan for a few days.

let's see, 呵呵。

xiaobailong

发信人: chinook (Base Loaded), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Re: 小心了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 6 16:35:22 2008)

First I dont think I am Niu Ren, maybe just someone talked too much. But I
don't see any big difference there. Remember I asked Vankie "isn't time DSD
should come out?" then DSD out next week. :-)

Different people have their trading style and trading cycle, you only need
to make sure the market goes matching your plan.

Seldom I do live broadcasting or next day prediction. Most times my time
frame is few days or about 1 week ahead.

You can go back and check when I said NAZ will be 2500, and because that was
my goal, so I will change my sentiment when it was something like 2480.

【 在 ffkiller (一叶知秋) 的大作中提到: 】
: 最近高手之间意见不统一， 轻仓为上策.

xiaobailong

发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock
标 题: Buying Today Shows Strong Support Here.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 6 13:06:10 2008)

We have a weak start then dip buying started. Bears may be too anxious here
and
could get squeezed. This is expected as I don't see a reason for significant
downturn. Be very careful to enter short positions here. Look at FNM as an
example.

--

xiaobailong

发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Buying Today Shows Strong Support Here.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 6 13:39:26 2008)

Guys, it may be too dangerous here. I agree with Chinook's view in another
message that market will not go significant higher or lower near term.
--

xiaobailong

发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: chinook pk eric
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 6 13:37:09 2008)

It's not a PK. We both see pullback here but may have different view on the
sacle of pullback and if short positions will make good money here.
--

xiaobailong

发信人: chinook (Base Loaded), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: C帅怎么看现在的大势？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 6 19:32:21 2008)

just replied.

market sentiment is still okay, but I am not okay with that. I don't feel
comfortable to follow the market trend at this level, so have virtually
cleared all my longs and wait in the sideline, with minor short positions
for fun.

Today's up is really manipulated in my reading. The gas price, the
commodities, the inflation, the newly show up bank write off (UBS), the FNM'
s 6B fund rasing, and plus such a big rally for past month. I seriously
think market might crash overnight. The longer this holds up, the bigger
will be the hit. But will it crash tomorrow? or next few days? I don't know,
even don't know if there is one.

anyways, when I don't feel comfortable, I stay away.

btw, did you notice GOOG/BIDU/RIMM/AMZN all red today?

xiaobailong

发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock
标 题: Sideway Market
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 7 12:05:08 2008)

We have Monday's pullback then yesterday's rally. It looks like market try
to work off the overbought-ness, which is good. Market will not fall apart
or zoom ahead and is just in a sideway mode.

CSCO is trading down. That’s a sign that people start to lock in profit.
Dollar strength caused rotation out of oil and gold a little. I think this
back and forth movement will continue.

--

xiaobailong

发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock
标 题: Market May have More Downside to Go
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu May 8 11:01:55 2008)

I expressed the view of sideway market two days ago. I think that view may
be little too optimistic.

My concern is supported by the techinical setups that have developed. The
formation off the March lows in all the major indices is a "bearish wedge."
That is basically a steady, low-volume rise with little underlying support.
The danger here is if the uptrend is broken the selling may intensify
quickly. Major question is if this uptrend move is supported by big money
instituential investors.

if you intend to add long positions you should be careful here until the
dust is settled down.
--

xiaobailong

发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: Market May have More Downside to Go
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu May 8 11:09:24 2008)

One major thing I would like to emphasize here is that you should be
caucious on both short and long side if you are trading short term.
The picture is not completely clear if yesterday's downturn is just a hiccup
or sustained one.
--

xiaobailong

wcg (图)
来源: rimm 于 08-05-08 15:21:38