Forex/Futures ST for Week 10/14 - 10/19

greenback

Finally let's go to stocks, ES is doing just fine, but TF is in a down channel already. So on the one hand, small caps and GOLD traders are running away, on the other hand, treasury traders are not interested in safety either. A confusing time indeed ... maybe should be careful and wait for the picture to become clear.

MFTHT

俺已经冲进去了（ES）,做好向下倒手的准备。如果这里盘两天后掉下去，俺，俺到时再说。

greenback

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-19 12:33 AM
俺已经冲进去了（ES）,做好向下倒手的准备。如果这里盘两天后掉下去，俺，俺到时再说。

In the afternoon? Maybe it's a good entry point, i.e. a higher low ...

MFTHT

greenback 发表于 2012-10-19 12:36 AM
In the afternoon? Maybe it's a good entry point, i.e. a higher low ...

惭愧，是昨天中午闭眼冲的（10/17），当时看到买多的信号了。有些犹豫，因为当时刚完成了第三次向上push，应该有回调，但是被前两天的无回调上涨搞毛了，脑袋一热，决定先冲进去再说。

austinjoe

greenback 发表于 2012-10-18 10:28 PM
Finally let's go to stocks, ES is doing just fine, but TF is in a down channel already. So on the on ...

Greenback 老大, what's the greenish line on your ES chart, from late Aug 1395 to Mid Sept 1468, then 1425 --> 1465 --> 1415 and the current one your end it at 1458? Would you please share what's the base to draw them?

It looks like 5F走势 using 缠论 on SPX that I have on post#52 on the main board -- URL
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=189280&pid=1922340&fromuid=2718

The last up leg rising from 1415 -- the strength is not likely to compete with the 1st leg rising from 1395 to 1468, hence it's doomed to fail IMO. If it does turn down here, then it's a M+A middle term with top of A lower then 2 tops of M.

MFTHT

greenback 发表于 2012-10-19 12:36 AM
In the afternoon? Maybe it's a good entry point, i.e. a higher low ...

绿老大现在有仓位吗？
我对ST同时做ES, 6E, 和ZB有心理障碍。因为他们相关性太强，如果判断错了，就全盘都错。

greenback

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-19 01:00 AM
绿老大现在有仓位吗？
我对ST同时做ES, 6E, 和ZB有心理障碍。因为他们相关性太强，如果判断错了，就全盘 ...

I don't have any position so far ... waiting for the dip to stabilize ...

greenback

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-19 12:58 AM
Greenback 老大, what's the greenish line on your ES chart, from late Aug 1395 to Mid Sept 1468,  ...

Those lines are my manual zig-zag lines for me to focus on big moves ... TOS can't do a good job in drawing the lines: it doesn't connect from the peak to trough; but only connect peak to peak, trough to trough, or close to close. What a pain!

I like your idea ... very interesting, looks like the wave theory. Hope to see your threads here on futures!

greenback

This plot shows you how important the current level of EURO is ...

greenback

AUD should also consolidate at this S/R level for a while ...

greenback

I haven't seen a bottoming pattern yet in stocks ...

greenback

greenback 发表于 2012-10-19 12:28 AM
Finally let's go to stocks, ES is doing just fine, but TF is in a down channel already. So on the on ...

I remember this is the second time since the summer a confusing set of price actions among major assets lead to a crash ...

This just tells us again that price actions don't lie if you look at all of them together.

greenback

I'm adding my first dip buying in the leveraged account ... 1/8 ...

greenback

The reasons are the MA50 arrival and the performance of bonds and currencies ...
A bit oversold ...

greenback

With this EOD buying, I won't rush into any futures products. Probably on Sun there will be another dip ...

greenback

FYI : fed meeting next week!

austinjoe

greenback 发表于 2012-10-19 11:36 AM
Those lines are my manual zig-zag lines for me to focus on big moves ... TOS can't do a good job ...

Thank you for your answer. Now I know it's Zig-Zag line drawn by yourself. I don't do futures but I'll come here more as your posts does provide lots useful information on bonds / currencies market that inter-relate to equity a lot.

Question: since you said that "I haven't seen a bottoming pattern yet in stocks ...", why put your first 1/9 dip buying today? SPX MA50 has been hit once last Friday. It may not provide solid support this time IMO.

greenback

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-19 04:47 PM
Thank you for your answer. Now I know it's Zig-Zag line drawn by yourself. I don't do futures bu ...

These trades are for my mutual fund in the retirement account. The implication is 1) I can only buy at the EOD price; 2) All trades have a 48 hours/two days dead period before I can sell, so I often have to do trading on the left side when buying dip. Will need to add more when reaching another S/R level ... This is definitely different from futures/3xETF trading, which is strictly based on price actions.

austinjoe

greenback 发表于 2012-10-19 03:34 PM
These trades are for my mutual fund in the retirement account. The implication is 1) I can only bu ...

I see. I have the same problem with my 401K as it only uses the EOD price which force me to do left side trade :-o)

BTW, what's your next S/R? Would you please share? Mine is 1430, 1425, 1415, 1396 on SPX. Since 缠论 that I'm using does not predict market next move. I'm more interested to learn from gurus like you.

MFTHT

MFTHT 发表于 2012-10-19 12:55 AM
惭愧，是昨天中午闭眼冲的（10/17），当时看到买多的信号了。有些犹豫，因为当时刚完成了第三次向上push， ...

被止损了，现在看空了，等着下周一反弹卖空。熊熊这一闷棍超乎想象。晕！