大量做空UNG

egghead1

38# bluecloser


Compared to your language, I didn't use any strong words. I simply pointed out that it's not polite to use foul language on other people and you should show respect for people. And your example is clearly based on the assumption that NG is in contango and the curve flattens along the way. Am I missing anything? Invert the curve to backwardation and then assume the curve flattens along the way. Can you still draw the same conclusion that UNG is going to 2? I don't have a problem with your trade. I just think showing some courtesy never hurts anything, even if you think you know more.

johndai

Holder of UNG should cut loss now?

anoilman

42# johndai

i did and lost 2k. tomorrow i will short at the top!

dividend_growth

这个UNG很可能要成为DQ股神rimm的滑铁卢。

freestock

Cannot remember clearly. One phrase in future market says  " time to buy natural gas in summer and buy oil in winter"

johndai

这个UNG很可能要成为DQ股神rimm的滑铁卢。
dividend_growth 发表于 2009-8-31 23:33

Maybe not. I think UNG is near bottom.

bluecloser

dude, give us some good reasoning so that everyone learns from you. Anyone can easily claim that every day is a bottom day.

bluecloser

UNG的net asset value已经进入8块区了。

kmj

楼主,那么hnu.to有操作性吗?我手里拿有hnu.to,要割掉吗?谢谢

bluecloser

和UNG类似的东西吗？我不懂它持有什么，怎么roll-over等，所以不能评论。不过持有天然气短期向下走是肯定的。怎样roll-over等机制决定了长期还能往下走多远。

如果是持有天然气公司股票，那就是另一回事了。可能还会bullish。天然气公司面临重新洗牌，大公司将无限受益。

kmj

50# bluecloser


hnu.to是天然气的etf,天然气跌他就跌,如果你看空天然气的话,那就等于要割掉hnu.to 了,因为现在ng在3元左右,但还会跌到2.3左右,是吧?

bluecloser

fundamental支持继续跌。这个月份的前20calendar days如果有大涨，我都会觉得很惊讶。
像UNG之类的ETF，做空永远比作多有优势。股票类则相反，做多永远比做空优势略大。

天天好运

有无short天然气的ETF？谢！

bluecloser

UNG个位数了。

lucky99

54# bluecloser

Thanks, real HH!

ricky

54# bluecloser


Does LZ have a target for UNG?

Thanks,

逗你玩

强人牛人爽人---很久没有读到这么好的帖子了。NND，今晚查读一下你家伙的所有帖子，搞得又要晚睡了！

howardzw88

53# 天天好运 The short of natural gas is hnd.to but be careful. It is gone up from about $3.28 Can to now $23.58 today.

vub

Mr. Bluecloser

Natural gas future is already 2.5. What is the next? My take is it will break the low of 2002 eventually. That is it will go to 1.xx. But I am not sure if it will bounce before another leg down.

How do you think?

Thanks!

bluecloser

my guess is that it is going down further. but it seems it will have a bounce towards 2.60. I would be surprised if it jumps above 2.60.

my trading rule is that if I expect something to bounce small and then head down much further, I would not cover my shorts. what if it never bounces, or what if it just bounces for a couple of pennies. it is ok to eat that loss for more gain.