the beauty of trend following

hutong123

Clearly we are entering a bear phase. I have liquidated all my longs except GLD/DGP.

In bear market, I take breaks.

So I will not update this thread until the bull returns.

I will never miss a bull market, so once I am back, the bull is back.  

You guys have fun.

hutong123

thanks.............................................

xnz

Thanks for sharing
Are you still holding AAPL, BIDU, those winners?

HTER

angelafund

This market has flashed a follow through day as Nasdaq went up 2.6% in higher vol. The signal should not be ignored even though the leadership is thin.



Going long tomorrow UAUA, DECK

xnz

回复 65# angelafund


    Good to see you back. Does it mean that the market is bottom out?

angelafund

回复  angelafund


    Good to see you back. Does it mean that the market is bottom out?
xnz 发表于 2010-6-2 22:18

no, historically, 1/4 of market follow through will fail; and this one can have a very high fail rate considering the thin leadership and majority of the bases are either broken or too wide and loose meaning market needs more time ....

but I am willing to give the market a benefit of doubt to let it prove itself.

if you have a port of $200K, put $50k in ... if market asserts itself in the next few days, add more exposures, otherwise scale back.

so tomorrow, going long

AAPL, DECK, UAUA

angelafund

so far so good, price followed through today, but not vol. Vol continuously track below 50MA showing big boyz are standing aside.

Low vol rally is not a big issue unless it meets with heavy doses of distributions ... so far the stocks I am monitoring and buying are acting like they are having a bull market ... so I am fine with what I have right now ...

Looking to add more exposures to the market.

currently holding: CSTR, VMW, UAUA, DECK, AAPL

CSTR and VMW are bought on 28May2010
UAUA/DECK/AAPL are bought on 03Jun2010

I do purchase on market opens.

RedBean

回复 68# angelafund


Thank you very much for update

coolgal

Wow, I'm impressed.

littlevivi

牛人！！！把你的帖子收藏了！学到了很多很多东西。前一阵子我是强烈看熊的，现在转牛了，而且以前从来不买tech的股票，现在才知道失去了多少。。。

angelafund

move to cash, no question asked.

angelafund

Awful action in stock market ... I was expecting this little bounce could last a week or two, but clearly this market needs a lot more to heal itself ... cash is the best place to be

Are we heading for double dip? When all the US stimulus is over, with Europe in down spiral, China is tightening, I wonder what else can pop up this market?

If China loosens again, I bet its real estate market will burst this time. LOL

angelafund

added more gld/dgp to my gold holding. My first gld/dgp buy was on 28Apr2010.

DGP 13% (first buy on 28Apr2010, add 07Jun2010)

I have nothing but gld/dgp in my acct

angelafund

One thing I have learned in trading over the years is that you should always be ready for change in your market stance ... Over confidence or less of confidence in stock market is a killer for performance.

The market action over the last couple of days illustrates the importance of staying flexible in market views. Last Thursday, market reversed the Wednesday loss and gapped higher and Friday's follow through on bigger vol to the upside puts the market in a potential tradable rally. Nasdaq's vol on last Friday is the first over the last three weeks going above 50MA, indicating big boyz are stepping up to the plate. Well, there is no sure thing in stock markets, things definitely have brightened up a little for good.

There is no shortage of leadership breakout. The breakouts have been holding up, pointing to further price apreciation if the market can continue to ramp higher. The two top leading groups are cloud computing related represented by CRM, VMW, RVBD, NTAP; the other group is the fabless semiconductors represented by CRUS, ARMH, ALTR etc. Other breakout includes FFIV, ISLN, VIT, ROVI, ARUN etc.

Friday's big reversal on several big stocks should alert you to stay away from overlly bearish on the market. AMZN gapped down at the open more than 10% but closed near unchanged. The seeming broken down former leading stocks ISRG, CMG all rampped higher after earning release.

Economic sensitive sectors seem to be on the mend. Commodity stocks seem to find a bottom (at least in the short term bases). Construction and machinery stocks look to be basing nicely. These are all supportive to the health to the market rally.

I am willing to take a bet ... I am going to buy the following stocks on Monday. My capital commitment will be 30%

Fabless semi: CAVM, SWKS, LSCC
Retail: CMG
Cloud Computing: CRM

sooners

回复 1# angelafund


   

csw2002

GS, JP and Solley buying on the open

angelafund

I am going long BIDU

angelafund

bought FNSR

ZZzz2000