大盘和XLF走势跟踪

NumberRules

原帖由 wmi2009 于 2008-9-5 17:19 发表 22.5 is not far away. Maybe monday we can see it. I will say if you have skf , don't add any before 106. if you don't have and afraid of losing opportunity. Add a little bit tuesday or monday afternoo ...

 

yes, 105~106 is about right when XLF at 22.5.

NumberRules

原帖由 zythx 于 2008-9-5 12:30 发表 http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog.php?blogID=28539

 

impresive! waveplayer对SKF的stock和option的操作很有技巧，整一个流程看下来，流畅啊。胡同高手众多，以后要多母鸡。

zythx

NumberRules: 下次有比较安全的进货点，喊一嗓子。

windyboy

原帖由 NumberRules 于 2008-9-5 17:16 发表 SKF sold at 116.00 while it rebounced, and bought back at 112.86, second time i did this week, （这个是不是“偷鸡”？我还在学习胡同用语之中，谢谢指教）。on other hand, let XLF runs.   我一 ...

你的实时观察真的令我佩服.....希望多发言,胡同的好处就是以讨论为主,对事不对人....相信不会有人bash你的.....

coexist

原帖由 zythx 于 2008-9-5 17:41 发表 NumberRules: 下次有比较安全的进货点，喊一嗓子。

yupek

Do you guys still hold skf?  I have some, and still think about what I will do in the next week.  I didn't watch the market in the whole day. Just come back, and a little panic. Cut to chase posible finance rally in the next week, or hold to wait another chance?  Still have no clear idea.

zt a post from mitbbs.

发信人: TARFAN (TARFAN), 信区: Stock
标 题: SKF, not a problem.
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Sep 5 19:36:01 2008)


As long as you bought SKF in 110 range, it is not a problem. SKF already
dropped half from 200s. The closing price is 112, and 211. Most party of
the financial rally is done. People knew goverment was going to rescue 2Fs.
There is nothing new here. Sell on news. maybe SKF will drop a bit
further, but not a big deal. I think now it is time for SKF to take off, as
late as the end of next week.

wmi2009

别怕，美国经济不从根本上解决问题，金融体系早晚崩溃。目前为止，我能看到的唯一拯救美国的可能，就是第二次东南亚金融危机或者欧洲战争。没有大规模的热钱回流，美国经济没有解药。

 

XLF有两个关键点位，一个在22.5， 一个在24。对应SKF106，91~92. 如果下周就狂涨，1个月SKF去160.如果走走停停，就可能要到大选后了。

 

原帖由 yupek 于 2008-9-5 19:59 发表 Do you guys still hold skf?  I have some, and still think about what I will do in the next week.  I didn't watch the market in the whole day. Just come back, and a little panic. Cut to chase ...

zerox

胖娃爹快更新！是买 uyg 还是 买 skf ? 还有个问题请教一下， 这两都是double的，skf $211 的时侯 uyg $14, 现在一个106 一个23，(AH) 好像不是很对称, 当时如果各买相同的金额，好像有的赚。很奇怪！

gardener2000

SKF holders should be careful. The trend is on the UYG side, although there is so much worries about Financial system. BUT Financial service is the most important industry USA still dominates. The goverment will try it best to protect it. This recession is caused by credit crisis. Once mortgage market stablized, it will back up. The effort on FNM and FRD will help to stablize the mortgage bond market.

yager

因为准备在另外的地方保存，就改成蹩脚的英语了，不好意思。

Market glance:



Note that XLF is having a whipsaw.  Other than that, the mid-term trend is confirmed down.

SP500 daily chart and wave counting:



If we inverse the SPX chart, it does look like a bull market.  This is why I believe we are in a bear market.  All comments are on the chart.

XLF daily chart and wave counting:



I am not saying the correct wave counting is correct but most likely this is the best scenario that bulls can hope for.  Pay attention to the Near-Term Trend comments.

SP500 60-min chart:



I guess the market will open at 1260 and dive down to 1250, then goes up to 1270+.  If it doesn't drops below 1260 on Monday, most likely it will go straight up to 1270+.  Because the resistance between 1260-1270 is quite heavy, I don't expect it goes straight above to 1280+.  Be reminded that the mid-term trend is still down.

XLF 60-min chart:



It does look quite strong.  I expect the next reversal happens at about 22.5.  Note that the Acc/Distrib lines has not decisively dropped down yet.  This is consistent with the current range-bounding situation.

SKF 60-min chart:



Everyone knows SKF is going down.  It seems the correction wave is not completed yet, let's be patient.  I expect the minimum target after the correction wave is from 130 to 140.

QQQQ 60-min chart:



I am not very sure about QQQQ.  But it seems the technology sector is very weak so I don't expect a strong rally.  It will lead the rebound in the next week.

DJIA 60-min chart:



The Acc/Distrib line looks unusual.

yager

另外单独的XLF分析，传统j技术分析方法。

Take a look at the weekly chart first:

Now it is range bounding, and the previous trend is downward, so we cannot confirm it is bullish at the moment.  The candlestick pattern of the past two weeks looks like a hanging man, which is a consolidation or bearish reversal.  We need to wait for the confirmation.  The chart also shows that bulls and bears are fighting around $22 line, and a decisive breakout above 22 or under 20 will be a clear signal to the next trend.

How is the long term trend then?  Here is the P&F chart:

The chart shows that the first defense of bears is at 23.  Breakout above 23 will corner bears to retreat to 26.  Bears will be defeated once XLF closes above 26 decisively.

Now look at the daily chart:

Firstly, XLF is still bounded in a range between 20- and ~22.5.  Next, note that the range between Fib 50% and Fib 61.8% is a previous consolidation zone.  The volume within this region is quite heavy, so I expect XLF consolidates for an extended period.  Closing above 23.7 will mean the trend is strong and the bearish trend has been reversed.  We can also see a new trendline but it can be broken easily without any meaning.  In my opinion, MA(50) seems like a support but it doesn't mean anything either, maybe it could provide some hope to bulls.

How is SKF -- the UltraShort Financials -- doing?  Just take a look at a simple P&F chart:

Remember to disregard the price objective because I don't think it makes any sense.  On the chart, 108 looks like a good support, but it has been broken during the after-hour trading.  Then it may go straight down to 104 and 99.  Depending on how XLF goes, the next reversal point will be likely between 97--99.

yager

各位老大的讨论很精彩，谢谢大家提供的信息。我从图上看，还没有很好的信号支持看牛，无论是大盘还是XLF。我认为拿着SKF应该还是安全的，还不到割肉的时候。假如长期趋势逆转，XLF走入牛市，信号确认之后再进入也不迟，照样有翻倍的可能性。蛇老大报告还没有出来，不知道究竟会怎么样，但我对下周不看好，请大家拭目以待。

小咪

沙发:lol

lisa

原帖由 yager 于 2008-9-6 18:03 发表 另外单独的XLF分析，传统j技术分析方法。Take a look at the weekly chart first: Now it is range bounding, and the previous trend is downward, so we cannot confirm it is bullish at the moment.  ...

Win.Timing

辛苦！财务的变数太多，感觉还应该进一步观察。

yager

金融的牛市还没有到来，需要观察。假如来的话就跳进去，肯定可以翻倍。

google

yager评价一下我这个strategy:

Suppose SKF $100买下，顺手卖一个明年4月$105的Call，premium大概在$26左右吧, 成本下降为$74

worst case, 到时跌到$70，继续卖Call
best case, $5 + $26 = $31 profit per share

当然了利润受限制，但放着安心
以common sense，目前的经济形势，尤其是Finance的危机仍在恶化，远未结束，SKF去$70可能很小，向上可能最大，也有可能$100以上浮动
要知道DOW 14000的时候，SKF才$70

yager

不过你自己决定了。这是我画的risk profile。即使纯粹从概率角度讲也不错。

google

thanks, 你这个是什么software？

yager

thinkorswim。开了个模拟账户。