大盘和XLF走势跟踪

yager

SPX目标1170已经达到，暂时不要烧了。XLF目标也已经达到，也不要少了。SPX冲击1200之后再说。

Rosemary1

原帖由 yager 于 2008-9-16 10:20 发表 SPX目标1170已经达到，暂时不要烧了。XLF目标也已经达到，也不要少了。SPX冲击1200之后再说。

 

Yager Laoda,

 

I have a question: I did a stupid thing on SKF. I bought SKF at 124 one week ago, sold Oct 125 covered call when it dropped to 110 at whcih time I panicked. Can you please kindly give me a suggestion what I should do now? Wait until Oct OE, or buy back the covered call then hope for SKF to go a lot higher to break even?

 

I know I did really really stupid thing, but please help.

 

Thanks so much.

yager

现在SKF都130了，你不也没有赔么？先等以下看。SKF已经还有下降的空间。到下降的比较合适的价位的时候买回来也可以。再买入一点也可以。你的平均成本是多少？

yager

XLF安全的利润空间不大了，上面大概是20.2，所以手慢的不要碰了。

Rosemary1

原帖由 yager 于 2008-9-16 10:43 发表 现在SKF都130了，你不也没有赔么？先等以下看。SKF已经还有下降的空间。到下降的比较合适的价位的时候买回来也可以。再买入一点也可以。你的平均成本是多少？

 

I bought at 123.77,  sold covered call at 7.0, so average cost now is 117. The problem is the covered call is Oct 125, now it is around $20, it takes some time for it to lose time value. If I buy back covered call and keep my SKF, I lose 20-7=13/share realized loss, and do not know if SKF is going down or up. With the bottoming of the market, I am nervous.

 

I am not losing now. I am nervous about this situation because of my stupid execution, which caught me in a corner and cannot make a move.

 

Thanks so much.

yager

等着，不着急，SKF还有的涨呢。说不定人家提前就把你的股票call走了。没有赔你担心什么。

yager

这大盘要发疯。看熊的记得，后来还有的跌呢，SDS到70左右或以下也就差不多安全了。

aght

原帖由 yager 于 2008-9-16 10:57 发表 这大盘要发疯。看熊的记得，后来还有的跌呢，SDS到70左右或以下也就差不多安全了。

Thanks for updating!

windyboy

buy skf in every dip!!! 120, 115, 107, 97 (if it go there again) 小胖娃娃,你有什么skf的计划?

Rosemary1

原帖由 yager 于 2008-9-16 10:57 发表 这大盘要发疯。看熊的记得，后来还有的跌呢，SDS到70左右或以下也就差不多安全了。

 

Thanks so much.

maopao

Fed holds rates steady in face of turbulence

yager

老大昨天报告里说了，FED DAY有经验的trader们都母鸡。我们没有经验，但也要母鸡。以不变应万变，晚上再说后来的事情。

maserati

Zan 母鸡. The market's real reaction for the Fed meeting shows on the day after.

yager

Here is the SPX daily chart:

We can see that SPX reached the region of 1165-1172 that I mentioned yesterday and did get stabilized.  Very likely we will see a short term rally this week.  However, from my point of view the wave structure is incomplete so SPX needs a final push which will be a minor wave 5.  Of course it can be lower or higher (exhausted) than 1169.  I believe we don't have to chase the high at the moment, because there will be a better entry point.

SPX 60-min chart:

This is a tradable bottom.  Let's open long positions and ride the wave up!

XLF 60-min chart:

It has reached the target projected yesterday.  Now it's going up, and the near term target is Fib 61.8.  Remember that we are in a bears market, nevertheless we can trade any rebound.

Forget about SKF for now.  Let's trade UYG until the trend is about to revert.

QQQQ 60-min:

QQQQ looks very weak.  It will go up for sure, but most likely it won't go beyond Fib 61.8 before another down leg gets started.

TAN (Claymore / MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF) 60-min:

yager

简短解释：

确实见底了，但可能是短期的。

过上一段时间，再跌以下，就见到比较大的底了。

新的底可能低于1169，但也不确定。

信号有了，现在就要光明正大地去偷鸡了。但要记住现在是熊市，大盘随时可能掉下来，所以要小心谨慎，不要忘了还有一跌。

QQQQ看起来还是比较弱。

刚刚想起来太阳能，看上去要反弹似的。

yager

补充： 从信号上看，大盘见底了。从波浪上看，跌到目标了。老大的报告有所保留，我觉得也差一点，所以短期偷鸡要谨慎。

yager

又仔细想了想，看了看，还是觉得这是个短期的底，下面还有的跌。

偷鸡要小心！腿脚要快！

yager

亚洲市场还在跌。

yager

明天回调？？？

小咪

原帖由 yager 于 2008-9-17 01:29 发表 简短解释：确实见底了，但可能是短期的。过上一段时间，再跌以下，就见到比较大的底了。新的底可能低于1169，但也不确定。信号有了，现在就要光明正大地去偷鸡了。但要记住现在是熊市，大盘随时可能掉下来，所以要小 ...