大盘和XLF走势跟踪

yager

上涨缩量。3-month T-bill yield相比昨天有上升。危机似乎有所缓解。

maopao

Thanks for update

yager

我强烈感觉到短期回调的风险。SKF/SDS持仓过周末了。一会儿看情况是否要出long position.

shi33

thanks

Rosemary1

原帖由 yager 于 2008-9-26 16:01 发表 我强烈感觉到短期回调的风险。SKF/SDS持仓过周末了。一会儿看情况是否要出long position.

 

 

Hi Yager, Can I ask what is your take on SKF, and what is your average cost for it? My SKF is seriously under water because my stupid covered calls and did not take risk to cut.

 

Thanks so much for all the posts.

unlink

covered call要慎用，如果是打定主意无论短期涨跌都不准备卖的可以卖一些赚点零花钱，不然跌起来都来不及逃。我的亲身经历。。。卖了大房的covered call， 结果因小失大，这下套上了，好在资金只占比较小的比例 [ 本帖最后由 unlink 于 2008-9-26 22:07 编辑 ]

rosemary

You said it right. I was stupid, and not decisive in my executions.

aght

Thanks for updating.

Have a nice weekend!

yager

大家随便看看，一笑了之。

yager

This is the update to the last weekly analysis.

SPX daily:

Same chart and same outlook as the last week.  But I expect the SPX touches 1280 first.

SPX 60-min chart:

Short-term bullish.  1240 is the next target.

XLF daily:

Keep an eye on how it goes after Oct 2nd.  The turning point of SPX/XLF will be around Oct 3rd.

XLF 60-min:

Short-term bullish.  Buy UYG on the dip.  Avoid SKF at the moment.

QQQQ daily:

Mid-term bearish.  But this leg could be zigzagged and take some time to finish.

QQQQ 60-min:

Short-term bullish.  The next target is 44.

RUT daily:

Just a wild guess.  Short-term bullish, mid-term bearish.

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SSCC 60-min:

TAN 60-min:

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Credit risk and SPX:

The discrepancy between LIBOR and short term treasury bill is still very high, actually it's higher than yesterday.  Those banks are not trusting in each other, and this is a warning to the market internals.

Market glance:

INDU leads the broad market.  $COMPQ and $RUT are quite weak.  Transportation hit a new low.  Commodities is in correction but it looks like a bull flag.  US dollar is supported by MA50.

Sector glance:

Bullish percent of major markets:

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Regional banks are bullish:

Retail-Apparel looks good:

yager

短期看涨，中期风险还很高。需要继续小心。熊熊们到周末就很恐慌，害怕bailout plan出来把人吓死，收盘之前互踩。下周看涨。

yager

最近可能很忙，没空盯盘了。万一我有什么想法会及时汇报的。

skink

多谢！

farmoment

thanks

yager

不确定因素已经消除，牛熊双方达成一致意见，下周看涨。

yager

先偷鸡，等着将来高位买反指吧。

yager

又看了一下图，1280没有问题了。

yager

补充两长看牛的图吧。

SPX daily:


INDU daily:

skink

NumberRules

我始终不convinced SPX会过200ma，可能会touch，可能会来回。all bull trap！1330～1350就是诺曼底。1400 我就all short，等bmw那种退休或者老秋那种。