大盘和XLF走势跟踪

Win.Timing

maopao

好啊，俺的长舱就可以乘机逃命了！谢谢

NumberRules

原帖由 maopao 于 2008-9-28 13:41 发表 好啊，俺的长舱就可以乘机逃命了！谢谢

 

别忙着逃命，挣点利息钱也是要的。

lisa

原帖由 yager 于 2008-9-28 03:43 发表 补充两长看牛的图吧。SPX daily:10201INDU daily:10202

小咪

谢更新．最近作了两次ＥＴＦ　ＯＩＬ的短平快还挺好

yager

明天不能看盘，需要整天母鸡。好消息有了，现在的问题是短期市场对这个消息如何反应和消化。

首先看3.0.2 Credit risk watch，上周收盘是460。这个需要大幅度降下来，差不多到100-200之下。不下来的话就需要好好想一下了。

其次，看1.0.4 SPY 15m。118肯定不能破。比较正常的情况是稳步上升到122之上，一系列higher low，不能大幅度收到122之下。

最后看XLF。老大的60min图没了。自己看图，不能下20。XLF可能涨一点之后要回调，在21附近弹起来的时候可以上UYG，设置好stop。可能能拿到一些利润。

yager

ESZ8目前还好，不是很冲动，但不要破1200。

shi33

thanks for update

buybuy

tabbycat

thanks

yager

冒个泡。ＳＫＦ和ＳＤＳ都出了，我没有ｓｈｏｒｔ　ｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎｓ了。

yager

仔细看了一下SPX daily chart，好像下面还有1070，不着急。不能抄底了。

skink

thanks

笨妞妞

yager

看我19日画的图。http://yager.blogspot.com/2008/09/2008-09-19-market-watch.html 可能还有最后一跌，不过不知道什么时候。 [ 本帖最后由 yager 于 2008-9-29 13:53 编辑 ]

maopao

yager

The bailout plan was rejected -- it is unbelievable, and the Wall Street decided to sell everything to show how disappointed they were -- and the market crashed.

 

This was a life-time experience for me.  Too bad I just decided to close my short positions (SDS/SKF) yesterday night and couldn't watch the market today.  Technically speaking, the worse is yet to come:

• Neither the 1-month nor 3-month US treasury bill yield reaches the previous low, which means the credit risk is not deteriorated to a critical level that the government will act immediately.
• The volume of all major indices is heavier than previous few days but not as massive as previous low.
• FED didn't inject a penny into the banks or the market, which is dramatically different from previous few days.  Nor did they cut the rate.  This may mean they want to reserve the fund to an absolutely emergent occasion when the situation could be far worse.

 

The current economy and market condition, in my opinion, are once per tens of years.  I suspect more and more often we would say, "this time is indeed different!" ... "oversold can be even more oversold.".  It is tough to stay at either bulls side or bears side.  What is ultimately important is risk control.  My ideas are:

• Never to be fully loaded, not even to mention margin.
• Trust in the bear market.  No wishful thinking.
• If there is no long puts or ultrashort ETFs as a hedge, a tight stop must be in place; ...
• ...otherwise hold cash.

 

Every rally is SHORTABLE, DO NOT believe in a  uptrend ... it might be faked.  BE PATIENT.

 

Finally let's take a look at my SPX daily chart:

 

Here is creekmm's chart:

 

Last week most wave counters were screwed by the bailout plan and gave up the bearish counting (at least adopt an not-so-bearish or short term bullish counting) as far as I know.  Now it seems the power of nature is beyond the manipulation of human kinds.

 

A close up at SPX 5-min to see how bad the selling off was:

 

and the INDU which has the volume information:

 

Actually the Financial sector is relatively strong:

 

while the QID is probably the best performed bear market fund.  As I analyzed previously, QQQQ is indeed weak.  DO NOT LONG IT!

 

SKF is hopeless.  Maybe I was right to close it.  The last trade price was 114.30 which is way lower than it's indicative NAV 125.75.

maopao

说得实在太棒了！

xinren

admire you, well said.

liblib123