大盘和XLF走势跟踪

luck123

原帖由 yager 于 2008-10-1 14:28 发表 不着急。今天不能追高。我看了一眼像是往外倒货。等等看吧。先母鸡。

 

yager ，请问你是怎么判断在往外倒货呢？谢谢！

yager

我是看chaikin oscillator瞎猜的。没有什么特别的根据。

yager

The pullback today is expected, and the broad market, especially the financial sector, is fairly strong.  Probably people were very positive to the passage of $700B bailout by both the senate and house.  Will the government intervention change the big picture?  Yes, the near-term outlook is certainly bullish as everyone believes, but the intermediate-term and long-term outlook depend on the economical fundamentals.  Let's see.

SPX 60-min:

I expect SPX rises steadily to 1180-1190.  After that what will happen?

XLF 60-min:

QQQQ 60-min:

Do not open long positions on QQQQ.

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No chart for SSCC/TAN/POT/EWZ, etc.  Wait until the market is stabilized.

yager

我还是觉得做多要谨慎，手要快。心里的危机感还没有消除。

lovelyguoguo

I guess spx will hit 1212 in one week or two.

小咪

[quote]原帖由 yager 于 2008-10-1 23:54 发表 The pullback today is expected, and the broad market, especially the financial sector, is fairly strong.  Probably people were very positive to  the passage of $700B bailout by both the senate a ... [/qu ote]谢谢国 庆更新

幸运猪

hyf

aght

原帖由 yager 于 2008-10-2 00:55 发表 我还是觉得做多要谨慎，手要快。心里的危机感还没有消除。

笨妞妞

yager

看来昨天没有喊错啊。QQQQ差不多算新低了吧？

yager

本次下跌抄底以DDM/UYG为主。KBE/RKH也不错。

NumberRules

原帖由 yager 于 2008-10-2 10:41 发表 看来昨天没有喊错啊。QQQQ差不多算新低了吧？

 

already new low lo.

yager

最近观察不错，QQQQ就是最弱的，没有最低，只有更低。

yager

哈哈哈，XLF的支撑线破了。

qingbangmang

什么时候买阿？还要往下掉？

yager

Every time Wall Street will act differently and give you surprise.  There is no doubt the $700B bailout will be passed by the House.  The question is, however, how the market will create a new order in a dramatically different time.  Will the people on the street feel confident about the economic condition and start to invest again? I doubt.  Will the money injected into the financial sector stimulate the economy on a sustainable basis?  I don't know.  I insist the previous outlook, which is bullish in the near term and bearish over the intermediate and long term.  After the bailout plan is passed, hopefully there is no new uncertainty on the horizon.

SPX 60-min:

XLF 60-min:

QQQQ 60-min:

In summary, we are going to see a new low in the near future.

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No chart for SSCC/TAN/POT/EWZ.  A few things to be noticed:

• while the broad market is no good, it is really tough to pick a "good" sector;
• solar might go up due to FA;
• commodities have entered into a bear market.  It might bounce back up, but that will be temporary;
• Although the oil price is dropping, the transportation sector plummets even more.  And the lowering oil price is no longer a positive news for the broad market.

yager

这会儿好好观察大盘在好消息出来之后如何反映，到底礼花有多高。

yager

高开好，这样就可以低走了。

hyf