报告读后感

biorjin

 

evergreen

Crystal

olderfrog

嘁，预测准顶……@！@#￥用，就是累是不是今天纸交又亏了
看人家老熊，天天预测都跟放×&×……%%一样，可就是能赚

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-20 18:04 发表 老青蛙不在，否则他的MP一定拍的很舒服，唉

swing

JSL老大就是牛！会炒股，还会填词写诗，全才啊！

jsl

WK, 今天晚上太反常了，连我的垃圾贴都有人回，睡不着觉了

olderfrog

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-21 00:24 发表 WK, 今天晚上太反常了，连我的垃圾贴都有人回，睡不着觉了

st-watcher

JSL; Your posts here become my daily must-reading! Keep up good work, please!!

Niubao

My daily must-read, too. Thank you!

jsl

现在先打发一点时间，当作 My view：

 

I have no idea where the market will go tomorrow or next week. What I know is that the market shrugged off the bad news today and recovered from the oil/commodity shock. People are buying the commodity stock aggressively, and those are not bad decisions.

 

Overseas markets were not in good mood last night, let's see what they want to do today.

 

If I have to make a prediction, tomorrow's market is not going to move big either way, though intraday volatility can be high. Might update this if the overseas market give me more information.

大泡泡

越来越放肆了， 敢在蛇大前先写了。 哼哼。

jsl

Summary:
"总结一下，就是今天market给牛牛留了点希望，不过从breadth信号来看，现在能期望的最多就是个反弹而已"
SPY 像 Bear Flag
Oil 跳空遇阻
今天盘中的拉升不是由 XLE 完成的
QQQQ IWM 有小反弹的可能
"Volatility Index 30-day/90-day Ratio，Market is doomed"  (Cobra didn't say what's the time frame, I don't think you should stretch it too much)

Extra comments:
The sentiment is still strong, even the pullback near the end doesn't seem to be too bad. Everybody can see that the charts don't support 'buy'. it feels even more strange when much bad news have been overcomed so far.

shi33

thanks.

Kami

Quantum

估计班长今天会提Russell 3000 price-volume dominant的问题。CPCE也又掉了一点点。

jsl

Summary:

 

"下周大盘有... test the July 15 low的危险，....，如果...继续上涨的话，千万不要追高。如果...如预期回调的话，...如果红色线表示的support 在同等时间的3天回调里，still hold，那也许uptrend is OK，可以buy dip"

 

"Volatility Index 30-day/90-day Ratio", "NYSE Total Volume" 预示中期回调

 

 

My view:

I don't think we are going to test the low so soon. It would have been more likely before Friday's move. To say that in a month's time frame is safer.

 

The volume in the last few days dried up. IMO, it indicates only a passive market, meaning that the sentiment is "reluctant to sell", "reluctant to buy" and most of the time, a mixture of both. Before any significant news out, the opportunity cost vs speculation risk doesn't seem to favor anybody.

 

The quick breakout and snap back is not very encouraging for oil bulls, but nothing to worry about. In a next step down, a conservative trader like me will start to build positions. On the gold front, I would like to be a buyer if I am very pessimistic about future. So far, it is not that bad yet, but it worth at least for a hedge. Right now, it is clear that the central bankers around the world fear more on the growth side than the inflation, though they still like to pretend focusing on the other side.

 

Maybe the dollar sould pull back somewhat, but I don't see any reason for that pullback to be long and deep, because the driving force is quite macro. This is part of the reason why I am still a bit cautious on oil and gold.

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-8-24 22:53 编辑 ]

live111

good comment!

Cobra

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-24 21:49 发表 Summary:   "下周大盘有... test the July 15 low的危险，....，如果...继续上涨的话，千万不要追高。如果...如预期回调的话，...如果红色线表示的support 在同等时间的3天回调里，still hold，那也许uptrend ...

 

俺也没有说下周就test low啊，写点东东真难，咋各人理解都不一样呢。郁闷。

跟股庄谈恋爱

我也奇怪着那，还以为自己笨没看出来呢......也挺郁闷。

 

原帖由 Cobra 于 2008-8-24 22:58 发表   俺也没有说下周就test low啊，写点东东真难，咋各人理解都不一样呢。郁闷。

shi33

thanks for your hard work. let it be. dont' 郁闷!!!