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发表于 2025-4-10 12:25 PM
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本帖最后由 td2020 于 2025-4-10 10:40 AM 编辑
SPX需要回到5280+。不然就是小破位。
回到5280以上至少图形上来说不是那么糟糕。
真的, 就像我前面说的, 我只在2008年10月和2020年3月见过每天都如此波动的情况.
所以真的不好说:
2020年3月是大底了
但是 2008年10月不是.
你要说现在是2020年3月 还是 2008年10月, 我觉得更像2020年3月一点, 因为这次业是突发性事件. 但是还是要小心, 只怕万一变成2008年10月呀.
from TOS
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The S&P 500 is acting as volatile and unpredictable as it did in 2008 during the financial crisis
The S&P 500 index SPX is acting as volatile and unpredictable as it did back in October 2008 during the financial crisis. It is interesting to note that two monster-size rallies similar to the one on April 9 took place in October 2008 , and the market went on to make new lows. So, just because there was a huge rally yesterday does not mean that this bear market is over.
SPX has support in the 4,850-4,950 area. There was also support in that area back in April 2024 , at the end of a minor correction, as noted in the SPX chart below. The stock market is still oversold in many ways. Oversold rallies typically extend up to or just beyond the declining 20-day moving average (MA) and then run out of steam. This already happened in late March. Currently the 20-day MA for the S&P 500 is at 5,550 and declining rapidly.
The 200-day MA is curling downward is often the sign of a bear market. Because the S&P 500 was/is so oversold, there is a chance that the oversold rally could carry the index back to its 200-day MA. If the index can rise above 5,800, that would be bullish and likely signal the end of this bearish market phase.
SPX closed below the -4 "modified Bollinger band" (mBB) for three straight days. That stopped out the previous McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) buy signal but potentially sets up another one. The large rally of April 9 has generated a "classic" buy signal, but we don't trade those for they have proven to have too many whipsaws. Rather we wait for confirmation of the move, with further upside price action. If that occurs a new MVB buy signal will take place.
Equity-only put-call ratios have continued to race higher while the market has sold off. They are very high on the charts, indicating that the stock market is oversold. However, they won't generate buy signals until they roll over and begin to decline. From the accompanying charts, one can see that the weighted ratio dipped lower because of yesterday's rally, but that is not enough to call it a buy signal yet.
Market breadth has been wildly one-sided - heavily negative when the market is down, and then hugely positive on the rally day of April 9 . The breadth oscillators remain mired deeply in oversold territory. It is going to take an additional couple of days of positive breadth, at least, to generate buy signals here.
It should be noted that April 4 was a "90% down day" and April 9 was a "90% up day." While it might seem encouraging that a "90% up day" occurred, the reality is that these are symptoms of a bearish market. When the number of 90% days increases, the market is a dangerous place. As an example, in October and November 2008 - which was a very bearish period in the market - over the span of 45 trading days, there were 20 "90% days" in one direction or the other (6 were up, 14 were down). So, if this pattern of "90% days" continues now, it is not a positive sign.
Most stocks have fallen far from their 52-week highs and are going to have a hard time getting back.
New lows have continued to outnumber new highs on the NYSE throughout this downward trip in stocks. On two recent days, there was only one new high. So, this indicator remains bearish. This sell signal will only be stopped out if new highs outnumber new lows for two consecutive days. It's hard to imagine that happening, since most stocks have fallen far from their 52-week highs and are going to have a hard time getting back to that level anytime soon.
VIX VIX has exploded as fear has gripped this market. VIX shot up to 60.13 at its peak and backed off. That generated a "spike peak" buy signal, which will remain in effect for 22 trading days, unless it is stopped out by VIX closing above that previous peak at 60.13. Meanwhile, the trend of VIX sell signal is still in place as well. That will continue to be the case as long as VIX is above its 200-day MA (which is below 19.0). Both positions that we hold in line with these conflicting signals have been rolled, as we continue to espouse rolling deeply in-the-money positions to lock in some partial profits.
Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives has taken on a very bearish stance for the stock market. This is the first time since March 2020 that we have seen such a negative slope in the term structures and seen the VIX futures trading at large discounts to VIX itself. These are all bearish signs for stocks. The April VIX futures are set to expire on April 16 , so May will become the front month then.
One very oversold condition that exists is identified simply by watching VIX in comparison to the 3-month VIX (VIX3M). VIX is trading well above VIX3M at this time; when it drops back below VIX3M, that would be a short-term, oversold buy signal.
In summary, this market remains dangerous. We continue to hold a "core" bearish position but will trade confirmed buy signals as they come along. Most importantly, continue to roll deeply in-the-money options.
Potential oversold buy signal
As noted above, VIX (a 30-day volatility measure) has been trading higher than the 3-month VIX (VIX3M). This is an unusual situation that means the market is oversold (among other things). When this reverts to "normal," with VIX back below VIX3M, then that is an oversold buy signal for stocks.
If VIX closes below VIX3M, then buy 1 SPY ( April 25 ) at-the-money call and sell 1 SPY ( April 25 ) call with a striking price 20 points higher.
If the position is established, it should be held for only five trading days and then exited. Roll both sides of the spread up if SPY SPY rises to 10 points above your lower strike, remaining in the April 25 expiration.
Potential MVB buy signal
A "classic" buy signal has occurred because SPX first closed below the -4 "modified Bollinger band," and then close above the -3 band. We don't trade those, preferring to wait for further price confirmation in the form of a McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) buy signal.
If SPX closes above 5,500, then buy 1 SPY ( June 20 ) at-the-money call and sell 1 SPY ( June 20 ) call with a striking price 25 points higher.
This is an intermediate-term buy signal. If it takes place, then the target would be the upper +4 band. The trade would be stopped out if SPX retreats and once again closes below the -4 band.
New recommendation: Tower Semiconductor (TSEM)
As the broad stock market has raised the price of options to extremely high levels, here is a case where the longer-term options are relatively cheap. So with TSEM (TSEM) we are going to buy a straddle - both a put and a call - in anticipation of a large move in either direction by the underlying shares.
Buy 1 TSEM ( July 18 ) 34 call and Buy 1 TSEM ( July 18 ) 34 put for a total price of 8.10 or less.
If bought, plan to roll either option if it becomes at least 8 points in-the-money. For example, if TSEM trades up to $42 , then roll to the TSEM ( July 18 ) 42 call. Similarly, roll down if TSEM trades at $26 . We will not carry this to expiration.
Follow-up action:
All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.
We are using a standard rolling procedure for our SPY spreads: in any vertical bull or bear spread, if the underlying hits the short strike, then roll the entire spread. That would be roll up in the case of a call bull spread or roll down in the case of a bear put spread. Stay in the same expiration and keep the distance between the strikes the same unless otherwise instructed.
Also, for outright long options, roll if they become 8 points in-the-money.
Long 1 SPY ( April 17 ) 482 put: We originally bought a straddle, and then later rolled the put down several times. Last week at the April 4 expiration, we rolled to the SPY (April 555) put. That was rolled down repeatedly according to the above instructions until in landed in the put shown (482 strike) on April 7 . This has generated such a large profit, that there is no stop on this trade at this time, although the last roll was into a put with a huge time value premium.
Long 10 WEAT WEAT ( April 17 ) 5 calls: We will hold these calls as long as the put-call ratio buy signal is in place.
Long 2 APH ( April 17 ) 65 calls: Bought when APH (APH) closed above $65 on March 19 . We will hold as long as the weighted put-call ratio for APH remains on a buy signal. Even though the stock dropped, the put-call ratio is on a new buy signal, so hold.
Long 0 SPY ( April 17 ) 571 call and short 0 SPY ( April 17 ) 591 call: This is the position that was bought when the MVB buy signal occurred on March 24 . This position was stopped out on April 4 when SPX closed below the -4 Band. A new MVB buy signal may be setting up, but it has not confirmed yet.
Long 8 IEF IEF ( May 16 ) 94 puts: We will hold this position as long as the weighted put-call ratio for Treasury notes remains on a sell signal.
Long 1 SPY ( June 20 ) 485 put and Short 1 SPY ( June 20 ) 435 put: This is the "core" bearish position, bought near the close of April 3 , when SPX was well-below 5,480. It was originally the 535-485 spread, but was rolled down in accordance with the standing instructions when SPY traded at 485 on April 7 . Stop out of this position if SPX reverses and closes above 5,700.
Long 1 SPY ( May 2 ) 485 put and short 1 SPY ( May 2 ) 455: This is based on the "new highs vs. new lows" sell signal. It was originally the 542-515 spread, and was rolled down twice as SPY crossed below 515 on April 4 , and then rolled down again as SPY crossed below 485 on April 7 . Hold until new highs outnumber new lows on the NYSE for two consecutive days. (That is not likely to happen anytime soon.)
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
04-10-25 1328ET
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狗仔卡
发表于 2025-4-10 01:26 PM
