Sorry:(13): . Maybe you should separate "leg down" and "test low“ into two sentences and use two separate time adv's. Anyway, given the sentiment is quite strong, it is too early to say that the market will test the low, though that possibility definitely exist. Before any major distribution, I will treat a coming retreat as a midterm 50% retracement.
This time is not the time to predict the market. This time I want to be an observer. I want to see if tomorrow is indeed an up day or how much the morning rally can achieve, what is the slope of the down trend, if we will have a descending triangle or downward channel, if bond will retreat, oil and gold continue to drop.
So, I don't want to be a gambler when I can't see things clear.
The longer the market stay around the current level, the more likely it will break down. Given the hawkish words from the Fed, the bonds dropped and quickly bounced back. Yes, the economy is not in a good shape, and it is hard to say that the worse is over. I will continue with my DT nonsense and wait for the market to make a decision.
原帖由 jsl 于 2008-8-26 23:20 发表
summary:
"明天关注的目标还是126.50左右的support"
"既使support明天破了，可能也不是很可怕，大盘短期内还是有反弹的希望的"
My view:
The longer the market stay around the curren ...
I feel that the market will go up sharply in the next few trading days. I am not quite sure how oil and other commodities will play out here, since they seem to be the only threats left. I anticipate to see flat or down oil. So far, I am not able to have a sense of the probability, but the risk is high such that I would rather not stay on the opposite side.
"经济特别是金融面的消息最近很有利"? what are you talking about?
if you see how wide current interest spread are and what that means to financials and big banks, you won't say that. be careful guys.
为什么GDP鼓舞士气？ Not because of growth, there wasn't any. Not earnings, corp america is making much less if not losing. It is productivity. The economy is still running at a reasonable rate in spite of the credit cruch. This is encouraging. Today's run told me that the market is more likely to stay afloat for a couple more month. So if we didn't gain much space, we did gain some time at least. If the market indeed goes higher from here, people should avoid taking heavy directional bets.
Before you build the the habit of risk analysis, don't play too much options. Options give you leverage at a cost, frogs don't need leverage. Options are for people to trade risk.
反正这个帖子要关了，就把水灌这吧
狗仔卡
发表于 2008-8-24 10:13 PM
