11/08/2010 大盘回顾 （Now or Never for 2.5%+ Pullbacks）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up, I hold partial long position overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met not because it’s safe to do so. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 11/04,11/14,11/26 11/06 : 11/07 Next pivot date: 11/04 – 11/08, 11/24 – 11/26

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 21 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): NYSI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. T2111, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(200) is a little bit high. T2112, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev above MA(40) is a little bit high. 11/04 Market Recap: Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50) is too high. 11/04 Market Recap: 41% of Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. Data temporarily unavailable. 11/05 Market Recap: 70%+ chances SPX will close below 1225 on weekly chart within 2 weeks.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L *11/08 Low *Adjust stop loss. Yes, it’s not typo, it’s 11/08 low! NYMO Sell 10/28 S 2*ATR(10) Reference only, not meant to be followed. Stopped out with loss on 11/04.

 

SHORT-TERM: BEWARE OF POSSIBLE 2.5%+ CORRECTIONS

 

如果注意了11/05 Market Recap里提到的SPX daily bar completely out of BB pattern的话，今天的small pullback就是在预料之中的了，因为有8 out of 12 cases since 1991，out of BB day后都有不同程度的pullback。下面是所有的cases，注意看此后都发生了什么，好像more small pullbacks的可能性最大，对吧？

 

 

虽然我猜没有人相信大盘会有大的pullback了，不过还是提醒一下，我们现在一个now or never的time window里，见下图，自1991年起，非常有趣，market straight up without 2.5%+ pullbacks很多是在持续了48 to 61 trading days之间结束的，而我们现在是50 trading days without 2.5%+ pullbacks。几率上讲，较大的pullback就该在最近两周内发生。这是个now or never的time window，换句话说，就是如果安全度过61 trading days都没有2.5%+ pullbacks的话，那么很有可能the market would be up straight for 148 trading days without 2.5%+ pullbacks。顺便说，这个2周内可能发生pullback的time window正好也符合11/05 Market Recap里提到的70%+ chances a red week this or the next week。

 

 

除了上面的time window以外，SPY ST Model今天也突然给出warning，让收紧stop loss to below the low of today。看看下图中几次SPY ST Model给出这样的warning后都发生了什么就知道这个warning还是很有credit的，所以小心。

 

 

0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，这是今天第三个需要注意的地方，连着3个reversal like bars，因此VIX可能反弹，这也意味着SPX可能会pullback。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX MAY SHOOT HIGH THEN FALL BACK TO WHERE IT STARTS WHICH USUALLY IS THE 2ND BUY OPPORTUNITY

 

See 11/05 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: LAST 2 MONTHS OF YEAR ARE BULLISH

 

See 10/29 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	10/15 L
NDX Weekly	UP	%B too high with negative divergence. NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. NDX:SPX too high. Too far away from MA(200) (PPO(1,40,1) too high).
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA	07/15 L
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM		*ChiOsc is too high with 2 hollow red bars.
EEM Weekly	UP	EEM:SPX too high.
XIU.TO	08/31 L	TOADV MA(10) too high.
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		ChiOsc is too low. *Red bar plus black bar, all had led to a rebound recently. Interesting.
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	10/29 L	*ChiOsc  is too high.
GDX Weekly	UP	BPGDM too high, pullback?
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L	Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74.
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	11/02 L
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE overbought. XLB:SPX a little too high.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

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