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| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
Partial profits on 09/24. |
| ST Model |
11/23 S |
1.9*ATR(10) |
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| NYMO Sell |
11/12 S |
11/12 High |
*Adjust stop loss. Reference only, not meant to be followed. | |
SHORT-TERM: MORE REBOUND THEN A 2ND LEG DOWN
今天的大反弹是意料之中的，特别是如果注意看了昨天我给出的2 Major Distribution Day within 5 Trading Days的图的话(6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch)，所以维持intermediate-term is in danger of turning into downtrend的说法。
关于短期，我要说be careful，因为今天一方面买盘非常疯狂，一方面OEX Put Call Ratio又是skyrocketed high。基本上，维持今天After Bell Quick Summary的看法，an immediate higher high (higher than today’s high) is almost guaranteed on Friday，可能we’ll see more rebound thereafter，但是最终还是会有2nd leg down。
先看看今天买盘疯狂的程度，今年年初开始的读者应该还记得WOW吧？此后都发生了什么，应该还记得吧(See HERE for the past 11 WOWs)？今天能不能说WOW，我不sure，但是今天的Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative TICK还是有点过分，7431这个读数，既使是在WOW神奇的时代也是很过分的读数，所以be careful。
另一方面，还记得11/22 Market Recap里提到的OEX Put Call Ratio skyrocketed high吗？Well，今天更加过分。这个是非常可能的intermediate-term top sign，关于过去的历史记录，自己看11/22 Market Recap吧。
既然OEX Put Call Ratio skyrocketed high了，那么不可避免的是CPCI也会很high，下面是最近whenever CPCI >=1.90的情况，至少是个短期top是吧？Failed case very very rare是吧？这里，再说一遍，我只看图，别来告诉我，因为怎么怎么，所以this time is different或者怎么怎么不合逻辑。做TA分析的，如果总想着this time is different，最好还是forget about TA吧，that’s called trade what you feel not what you see。
最后一个证据，为什么说we’ll see more rebound then a 2nd leg down。下面的图，蓝虚线，是过去所有的Major Accumulation Day right after a Major Distribution Day的cases (exactly what happened today and yesterday)，sample虽然少了点儿，但是结合最近我给出的诸多证据，考虑到market目前疯狂的程度，所以exactly repeats过去的pattern – rebound then a 2nd leg down还是非常可能的，所以again, be careful。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 2 MAJOR DISTRIBUTION DAYS WITIN 5 DAYS MEANS MORE PULLBACKS AHEAD
The intermediate-term is in danger of entering a downtrend. See 11/23 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: 59% CHANCES, BUY TUESDAY SELL FRIDAY COULD BE A WINNING TRAD IN THANKSGIVING WEEK SINCE 1988
See 11/19 Market Recap for more details.
For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-11-24 08:50 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2010-11-24 08:52 PM
