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| BULLISH |
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks.
Stock Trader’s Almanac: 59% chances since 1988, buy Tuesday sell Friday in Thanksgiving week.
0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily): Open above BB top then formed a Dark Cloud Cover, bullish short-term.
6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 MAD within 5 days means a tradable bottom at least. |
| BEARISH |
*1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max is 22.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
11/22 Market Recap: OEX put call ratio surges, so top is close? Reading very low now, no longer applies.
6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch: 2 MDD within 5 days means more pullback ahead?
11/23 Market Recap: SPX down 1.4%+ but ISEE Equities Only Index > 200 means more pullbacks.
11/24 Market Recap: MAD right after MDD means rebound then a 2nd leg down.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close? | |
| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
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| ST Model |
11/23 S |
1.9*ATR(10) |
*Stopped out on 12/02 with losses. |
| NYMO Sell |
11/12 S |
11/26 High |
Stopped out flat on 12/01. Reference only, not meant to be followed. | |
SHORT-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, NEED WATCH THE CRAZY ISEE EQUITIES ONLY INDEX CLOSELY
两点说明：
- 今天的follow through非常strong，一般只有在重要的底部才会这样，因此关于12/01 Market Recap中提到的两个可能性，我现在倾向于是wave 5 up to SPX 1300+了。
- ISEE Equities Only Index还是非常疯狂(See 12/01 Market Recap for the past record)，今天是3rd record high，因此下面要重点关注。这个是熊熊目前最大的希望。
明天是Non Farm Payroll day，也是两点说明：
- Generally bullish.
- General intraday pattern is open high close lower or open low close higher. (The intraday chart below is courtesy of Bespoke)
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, NEED WATCH THE CRAZY ISEE EQUITIES ONLY INDEX CLOSELY
No new update, see short-term session above.
SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEARISH, WEDNESDAY (12/01) BULLISH, WHOLE WEEK BEARISH
See 11/26 Market Recap for more details. For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-12-2 09:27 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2010-12-2 09:28 PM
发表于 2010-12-2 10:00 PM
