12/07/2010 大盘回顾 （Double Doom?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold no position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 12/02,12/09,12/11 12/05 : 12/07 Week 11/26, 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/03 – 12/06, 12/09 – 12/11

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. 11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks. 6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 MAD within 5 days means a tradable bottom at least. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max is 22. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 11/23 S 1.9*ATR(10) Stopped out on 12/02 with losses. NYMO Sell 11/12 S 11/26 High Stopped out flat on 12/01. Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: THERE’S A CHANCE THE MARKET MAY PULLBACK FROM HERE, NOT SURE THOUGH

 

今天SPY整了两个reversal like bars，按以前的话，至少短期掉头向下的可能性很大了。不过，最近因为POMO and YES WE CAN，reversal bar都不太灵，所以我们只能wait and see了。基本上，还是12/03 Market Recap的说法，熊熊要反击，本周是最佳时机，now or never。

 

 

还记得我在12/03 Market Recap里提到的Double Doom吗？嗯，我担心的事情还是发生了，SPX今天higher high了，但是INDU没有。Again有没有用，只能wait and see了。

 

 

顺便说，觉得我每天blah blah很复杂的，要么simply follow SPY ST Model (Now is in buy mode but with no long position initiated yet)，要么看我table above里short-term hold what position overnight，啥时候我hold both long and short的时候，就是trend in transition mode，这时候可以考虑减仓，啥时候我hold long or short overnight的时候，就是短期趋势确立的时候，这时候基本可以跟着我long or short，我不认为bet against 84%+ winning rate是个好主意。现在，比方说，别看我每天blah blah说什么熊熊要revenge的话now or never，但是clearly I’m not short, right? No matter what evidences say，如果price action不confirm的话，提前行动是风险很大的，这就是我想说的了。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH BUT NEED SEE HOW MARKET BREAKOUT ABOVE SPX 1227

 

Temporarily maintain a bullish view for the intermediate-term, need see how the market breakout above SPX 1227 though. Right now the biggest problem is ISEE Equities Only Index is way too crazy. See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

 

SEASONALITY: DECEMBER HAS BEEN BULLISH

 

See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	12/02 L
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal but oversold now.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA		Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		*Test the previous low so there’re some chances TLT may be bottomed here.
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE		ChiOsc is way too high.
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD		*Bearish Engulfing rejected at the previous high. Be careful.
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/02 L	*Bearish Engulfing.
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		*Bearish Engulfing, all the recent pullbacks started with Bearish Engulfing, be careful.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L	*Bearish Engulfing.
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR		Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L	ChiOsc is way too high.
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

happyface

沙发

happyface

连续两天抢到沙发.

oldfox

haohh9

wnd4

thanks

ahdou

小财虫

q2model

Thanks,

greatinter

开小差

thx,ding

slcgh

hillcrest

thanks a lot!

hoyoto

thanks

jWishbone

Thanks.

fu2008

回复 1# Cobra


   

fara

1st page，
haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

jWishbone

Cobra, your daily blah blah is very valuable. Just looking at the chart, it's very hard to get what you think and how you think. I appreciate your kindness and hard work.

rosyrosy

妞妞