12/08/2010 大盘回顾 （Potential NYMO Sell Setup And Too Many Bearish Extremes）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold no position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 12/02,12/09,12/11 12/05 : 12/07 Week 11/26, 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/03 – 12/06, 12/09 – 12/11

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. 11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks. 6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 MAD within 5 days means a tradable bottom at least. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max is 22. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close? *12/08 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 11/23 S 1.9*ATR(10) Stopped out on 12/02 with loss. NYMO Sell *Short if SPY tomorrow’s open > tomorrow’s close, the stop loss is 2*ATR(10). Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: POTENTIAL NYMO SELL SETUP AND TOO MANY SENTIMENTRADER’S INDICATORS ARE AT BEARISH EXTREMES

 

我知道，看了标题以后，绝大多数人第一个反应是，who cares or 有没有用啊，可能私下里还有一句，您歇歇吧，每天bearish，累不累啊，呵呵。Anyway, I have to report what I see，我相信最终是会起作用的，问题是when，这我没法知道，personally, I’m in wait and see mode，没看我short-term hold no position overnight吗？

 

NYMO Sell Setup，应该比较熟悉了吧，原理见6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch，SPX new high或者非常接近new high，但是NYMO却是负的，这经常意味着top of some kind。当然不是总是准，尤其是机械信号的NYMO Sell，自2002年以来，成功率目前只有63%了。另外，注意哈，只是potential setup，table above里明天还有个confirm的条件。

 

 

Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes，见下图，41% of total Sentimentrader’s indicators are now at bearish extremes，这个数值已经非常接近11月top时候的extreme了。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH BUT NEED SEE HOW MARKET BREAKOUT ABOVE SPX 1227

 

Temporarily maintain a bullish view for the intermediate-term, need see how the market breakout above SPX 1227 though. Right now the biggest problem is ISEE Equities Only Index is way too crazy. See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

 

SEASONALITY: DECEMBER HAS BEEN BULLISH

 

See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	12/02 L
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal but oversold now.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA		Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		Test the previous low so there’re some chances TLT may be bottomed here.
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/02 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR		Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

NZX

沙发

CondorQueen

沙发

zhang

Thank you.

yuxiaohong

Thanks for your time, effort and good poste.

chickencoop

1st page

开小差

thx, ding

fu2008

fara

which chair is mine?

lwmm

thanks

qianshui

thanks. first page?

vicvic

jy1029

1st page

flash

I agree with cobra, i am not sure it's a med top, but at lease pullback to 120, i start short the market.

happyface

thanks

Jennyahwu

thanks, Cobra, today I does't see u hold the GS .I think u are sick thanks

everest001

xixi

Thanks a lot!

xixi

没想到座上第一页啦

t-k