12/09/2010 大盘回顾（One More Push Up?）

Cobra · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:31 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 are BUY
Intermediate	3 of 5 are BUY	4 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term	Model is BUY	6 of 6 are NEUTRAL	I hold no position overnight.
GANN DAY	MOON:SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
12/02,12/09,12/11	12/05 : 12/07	Week 11/26, 12/26	Next pivot date: 12/03 – 12/06, 12/09 – 12/11

BULLISH

~~0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals~~: ~~Head and Shoulders Bottom~~ ~~breakout, target 1242.~~
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
~~11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks.~~
6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 MAD within 5 days means a tradable bottom at least.

BEARISH

1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max is 22.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
*12/09 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close?
12/08 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop	09/07 L	N/A
ST Model	~~11/23 S~~	~~1.9*ATR(10)~~	Stopped out on 12/02 with loss.
NYMO Sell	*12/09 S	2*ATR(10)	*Short initiated on 12/09. Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE PUSH UP

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，看着像是个Ascending Triangle，因此多半还有one more push up at least，特别是明天早上如果是大高开的话，最好不要指望又pullback fill gap了，因为这是最近第三次大高开了，通常the 3rd time is the charm.

其它，不说大家都猜的出来，more bearish extremes，特别是体现在ISEE Index上，现在不仅仅是ISEE Equities Only Index extreme了，ISEE Index今天创了自2009三月大底以来的新高。下面的图highlighted in red，是历次ISEE Index > 180的情况，应该很清楚，这玩艺很高，意味着什么吧？

另一个值得注意的是Smart/Dumb money confidence spread from Sentimentrader，new high了。这个指标一直在table above里列着，今天算是update吧。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH BUT NEED SEE HOW MARKET BREAKOUT ABOVE SPX 1227

Temporarily maintain a bullish view for the intermediate-term, need see how the market breakout above SPX 1227 though. Right now the biggest problem is ISEE Equities Only Index is way too crazy. See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

SEASONALITY: DECEMBER HAS BEEN BULLISH

See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	12/02 L
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal but oversold now.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA		Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		Test the previous low so there’re some chances TLT may be bottomed here.
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/02 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		Bearish Engulfing plus channel resistance, could see more pullbacks.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR		Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L
XLB Weekly	UP

Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

houston · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:34 PM

Ding!

ahdou · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:35 PM

fead · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:35 PM

safa!

fead · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:35 PM

second safa!

X中国陆军 · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:36 PM

ddr · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:36 PM

Thanks

oda · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:36 PM

fead · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:36 PM

ding!

happyface · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:38 PM

thanks

yanjun · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:40 PM

leftright · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:40 PM

thanks

navybean · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:41 PM

Thanks

Jeff · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:41 PM

thanks

q2model · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:41 PM

Thanks for your hard work

开小差 · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:42 PM

thx,ding

德州牛仔 · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:45 PM

dreampen · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:47 PM

Thanks!

michaelzhang · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:48 PM

fara · 发表于 2010-12-9 08:49 PM

first page?

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[技术分析] 12/09/2010 大盘回顾（One More Push Up?）

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[技术分析] 12/09/2010 大盘回顾 （One More Push Up?）

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[技术分析] 12/09/2010 大盘回顾（One More Push Up?）