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| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
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| ST Model |
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Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. |
| NYMO Sell |
12/09 S |
2*ATR(10) |
Reference only, not meant to be followed. | |
SHORT-TERM: BEARISH EXTREMES GO TO EXTREME
本周，熊熊错过了最好的反击时间，后面几周，至少从seasonality讲，对熊是越来越不利的，当然，indicators可以算是在bearish extremes的情况下又go further extreme了，所以下周要怎么个牛法，确实需要点想象力。
- 根据seasonality chart，以及Stock Trader’s Almanac，下周general pattern，应该是前半周consolidation at least，Triple Witching Friday一下子全涨回来。
- 短期target，根据SPY 60 min Ascending Triangle的理论target，是$125.61。
看一下怎么个bearish extremes go to extreme吧。
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010, the 2nd record high，同时ISEE Index itself是5 year high。就是说，大家都狂买call。(For the past record readings please refer to 8.2.7a Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2006 – 2007)
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence spread from Sentimentrader也是the 2nd or 3rd 5 year high，其中Dumb Money Confidence （就是说我们小散）是5 year new high at least。
45%的Sentimentrader’s indicators are now at bearish extremes了，这是个非常高的数字。下面的小统计，also来在Sentimentrader (the condition was met on 12/07):
Since 2000, there have been 37 days when 30% or more of our indicators were bearish for the market, and 0% were bullish. Thirty days later, the S&P 500 was positive 3 of those days (an 8% winning percentage) and sported an average return of -4.4%. The maximum loss during the 30-day stretches averaged -8.1% versus a maximum gain of +2.2%, so quite a negative skew. We've seen in twice so far in the past year, right before the January and April peaks.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, TARGET SPX 1300+
SPX clearly breakout above 1227，因此按12/03 Market Recap的说法，这应该confirm wave 5 up to 1300+。当然有更牛的说法，比如这是3 of primary 3 up。怎么wave，我不care，反正都是up就行了。目前的catch，上面的short-term session已经讲了，有非常非常多的extreme了，散户非常high，但事实上，见下图，最近9天的涨幅却是自4月份以来最弱的，因此，我认为稍微大一点的pullback，类似November甚至April的，迟早是会有的，所以可能暂时看作wave 5 up还是比较合理的。
下面两个图，info only，因为they may take fairly long time to work.
4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I, too much too large negative divergence.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, 根据Dow Theory，INDU和UTIL暂时没有confirm SPX and TRAN new high。
SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, FRIRDAY AND THE WHOLE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Monday before December Triple Witching Dow up 3 of last 4.
- December Triple Witching, Dow up 18 of 27, with history of huge gains. 1982 +2.2%, 1987 +2.6%, 1992 +1.4%, 1994 +1.1%, 2002 +1.8% and 2007 +1.6%.
- December Triple Witching week, Dow up 22 of last 25.
See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-12-12 12:40 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2010-12-12 12:44 PM
发表于 2010-12-12 12:48 PM
