12/14/2010 大盘回顾 （Hindenburg Omen）

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trade28

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csw2002

那你有没有统计过以前Hindenburg Omen工作的时候是不是不是因为bond ETF创新低的多呢？我觉得哈， ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-12-14 21:29

The two subscriptions that I have both have mentioned Hindenburg Omen and their take was that this time (and other instances since beginning of 2009) are different from previous occasions due to a proliferation of bond issues since late 2008 (when everyone was rushing into bond rather than equities). Both of these subscriptions have started changing their methodology to use S&P500 data rather than NYSE data across the board for the their quantitative analysis. Thus far, S&P500 data have not had any abnormal spikes in new 52 week lows (in fact we are seeing lower lows on 52 week lows). That is not to say that they are not seeing some issues. In particular, they are finding the following divergences:

(1) divergence on advance/decline lines among S&P 500 which is making a lower high whereas S&P 500 is making a higher high
(2) divergence on net volume among S&P 500 which is making a lower high whereas S&P 500 is making a higher high
(3) Non-confirming tick scores that measures institutional program buying that has never confirmed the current rally since Sept 2010.

Do note that divergences on (1) and (2) can and will be erased if we continue to make new highs on higher volume and see more participation.

fishpet1

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Ding.

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H_T

totally agree with your analysis .

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XingXingZiHuo

回复 1# Cobra


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