12/15/2010 大盘回顾 （Hindenburg Omen Confirmed）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is SELL, not confirmed though. 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold trapped long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 12/09,12/11 12/05 : 12/07 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/09 – 12/11

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. 11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max was 23. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 12/10 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high. 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works) 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually. 8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close? 12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped? 8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped? *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed. *0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long. NYMO Sell 12/09 S 2*ATR(10) Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: THE TOP COULD BE IN, TARGET SPX 1227

 

维持short-term top was in的forecast，target SPX 1227，see 12/14 Market Recap for more details。

 

今天跌了，但是Sentimentrader’s Indicators At Extremes并没有改善，所以既使明天开始大涨特涨，恐怕也涨不到哪里去，所以还是建议小心。

 

 

今天最大的问题是CPC很低，这样，CPC MA(10)就到了一个非常extreme的level了，下面的图，看看最近CPC MA(10)非常非常低的时候都发生了什么吧。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: HINDENBURG OMEN CONFIRMED

 

昨天报告提到的Hindenburg Omen，今天再次触发，因此算是confirm了。基本上Intermediate-term暂时还是维持5th wave up to SPX 1300的forecast (see 12/10 Market Recap for more details). 这跟Hindenburg Omen不矛盾，因为5th wave up中途折断的几率还是挺高的，如果真是wave 5 up的话。

 

 

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, FRIRDAY AND THE WHOLE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK

 

See 12/10 Market Recap for more details.

 

See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	12/14 S
NDX Weekly	UP	NASI STO(5,3,3) oversold and buy signal.
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	UP
XIU.TO	12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	DOWN
GLD		*ChiOsc is a little low.
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	12/02 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	06/15 L
XLE Weekly	UP
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP	Home builders are lagging.
XLB	12/01 L
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.

当时惘然

sf, thank you.

ROOKIE2

ROOKIE2

first time

fu2008

 
TREND
MOMENTUM
COMMENT

Long-term
2 of 2 are BUY
 


Intermediat ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-12-15 19:48

   

我是谁

shafa

quietplayer

谢谢老蛇！

2010年的风云牛股纷纷在年尾跳水。。。

开小差

thx ding

atrader

thanks

learner2009

DayDayUp

jWishbone

Thanks. Very early today :)

mikeqc

1st page

chickencoop

thanks

Diver

You are fast today.

Thank you very much.

...
Cobra 发表于 2010-12-15 19:48

tenteddies

brcm

先顶再看.............:lol

bokchoy888

wnd4

thanks

Ed02

3x