苹果Analyst对Jobs sick leave的看法

Cobra

Well in 2009 when he took a sick leave it was the capitulation bottom for Apple.  I saw it trade at $76 in afterhours.  That was the lowest print.  After that, Apple rallied straight up to $200 a share.  But this obviously was largely due to the market bottoming as well.  But yea, it was a capitulation on Apple last time.  

Now I can't remember what happened he last took a sick leave.  I think it was in 2004.  But can't remember for sure.  What I can tell you is this.  For him to wait on earnings day to report a sick leave, it means that Apple will probably have very very strong earnings and are probably hoping that the impact of his sick leave will be dampened by strong earnings results. 

By the way, Apple is going to beat top-line revenue expectations by $2 billion this quarter.  That is the widest margin in the company's history.  Its a massive beat on expectations.  Last quarter I was off by $0.01 in EPS.  I'm positive I have a really good handle on the company's financials.  See here: 

http://bullcross.blogspot.com/2011/01/apple-to-beat-top-line-expectations-by.html

Now you can see my track record here: 

http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2010/10/fiscal-4q-10-actual-results-vs.html

Ranked 2nd out of 40 analysts.  

So yeah.  Last time Jobs took a sick leave it bottomed Apple.  Maybe this time it might top the stock for the near-term?  I don't know, but I think this is some sort of a top.  

 

On Jan 17, 2011, at 10:04 AM, Peter Pan wrote:

Can you check what happened whenever Jobs took a sick leave? Thanks.

littlevivi

CEO太重要了也不好。APPL有点像家族似的

Diver

我有同感这两点：

“For him to wait on earnings day to report a sick leave, it means that Apple will probably have very very strong earnings and are probably hoping that the impact of his sick leave will be dampened by strong earnings results. ”

“Last time Jobs took a sick leave it bottomed Apple.  Maybe this time it might top the stock for the near-term?  I don't know, but I think this is some sort of a top.  ”

我估计明天先跌后涨，后天高开低走，中期顶。

Well in 2009 when he took a sick leave it was the capitulation bottom for Apple.  I saw it trad ...
Cobra 发表于 2011-1-17 13:17

MM_Wu

从医学角度来看，乔布斯的情况不妙。我们都知道癌症复发的存活几率比初发低得多得多。这次可能过不去这个坎了。作为苹果的灵魂，他的离去对公司会是致命的，因为现在是苹果急于开创新天地的关头，现有的产品都站到了顶峰。竞争者都在一步之遥了。

股价会从此一路下跌。起跌越缓，越是会不见尽头。

shoujie

This  is the charm too ..... because it's 4th now ....

面瓜

算得上伟大的公司，也许只有IBM，
google算半个；

appl，十年后没有人会记得它。

ppteam

who cares.

Poo

我有同感这两点：

“For him to wait on earnings day to report a sick leave, it means that Apple wi ...
Diver 发表于 2011-1-17 13:49

agree, 苹果每次的顶都会虚晃一下，来个双顶。所以明天先跌，er 回测高点后才会是真跌。

Poo

who cares.
ppteam 发表于 2011-1-17 17:12

你，你， 你 。。。。

6degrees

Android和Jobs的离职将预示着Apple的拐点。对Jobs来说，现在走是最恰当的时候，所谓功成名就，载入史册。

ppteam

AAPL overseas drops a lot, 8-10%.

prepare to buy dip, find out the support and prepare to avg down. gonna be fun.

jamesmith

我是jobs的粉丝, 希望他可以没事

小财虫

Poo

AAPL overseas drops a lot, 8-10%.

prepare to buy dip, find out the support and prepare to avg dow ...
ppteam 发表于 2011-1-17 23:53

I thought you do not care

Poo

ps this time AAPL ER moved up earlier, is it possible to do with sj's leave?

ellesmere

算得上伟大的公司，也许只有IBM，
google算半个；

appl，十年后没有人会记得它。
面瓜 发表于 2011-1-17 16:27

    MSFT不算？

面瓜

MSFT不算？
ellesmere 发表于 2011-1-18 12:45

    Bill走了以后，算垃圾公司
走之前，一般般。

garfieldking

IBM is nothing.
APPLE will be remembered even after 100 years.

算得上伟大的公司，也许只有IBM，
google算半个；

appl，十年后没有人会记得它。
面瓜 发表于 2011-1-17 16:27

tonghu

IBM is nothing? 真是无知者无畏

IBM is nothing.
APPLE will be remembered even after 100 years.
garfieldking 发表于 2011-1-18 21:50

gummykitty

IBM is nothing? 真是无知者无畏
tonghu 发表于 2011-1-18 23:53

同意，IBM灰常灰常强大