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| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
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| ST Model |
02/17 L |
*Breakeven |
*Set the stop loss to breakeven. Too bad, no chance to follow again. I’ll find time to fix this kind of problems. |
| Short-term |
N/A |
N/A |
Trend is UP. I hold no position overnight. | |
| My Thoughts |
I’m almost convinced that this could be a primary 3 of 3 up to much much higher. | |
SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE RED DAY OR TWO BUT HARDLY THIS IS A TOP
下周二或者周三可能会收红，不过本周五是the high的可能性不大。理由如下，不是很solid，但是也不能说没有道理，毕竟SPY close 14 consecutive days above MA(5)是over extended，当然，这也说明up momentum很strong，因此突然就暴跌的可能性很小。Short at Friday’s close and cover at the very first day close below MA(5) since 1991, the winning rate is 67%。下面的图同时列出了过去的全部9个case，可以很清楚地看到：
- 6 out of 9，下周二应该close in red (could be small red)。
- 6 out of 9，下周三close below MA(5) (A little bigger pullback)。
- 如果下周二还是green的话，要小心可能还会疯狂的涨up to 7 days。
- Only 1 out of 9是the top，不过，我不认为这个可以适用于现在的情况，因为那是熊市的oversold反弹。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE NO 2.5%+ PULLBACK FOR 85 MORE TRADING DAYS, BEARS MAY WAIT ANOTHER WEEK, BUT DON’T HOPE TOO MUCH
在02/04 Market Recap里，我们讨论了40 to 61 trading day threshold for not having 2.5%+ pullback，现在已经是第65 trading day了，因此chances are better and better，我们可能在今后的85 trading day里都不会有2.5%+ pullback。再下面的统计数据highlighted，过去两例up 150 trading days without 2.5%+ pullback的情况，涨幅分别为19% and 27%，而我们现在的涨幅为14%，这就是说还有很大的上升空间。
当然，对于熊熊来说，65 trading days without 2.5%+ pullback并没有比61 trading day的threshold大多少，因此还是有一定的wiggle room的，特别是：
- 下周seasonality bearish (see seasonality session below)。
- Lots of time related turn date都指向下周。
- Full Moon on 02/18。
- Solar Term date on 02/19。
- Short-term session above的统计数据显示了下周二或者三跌的可能性大。
所以，不能完全排除下周就有2.5%+ pullback的可能。
Personally，基于同样Short-term session给出的理由(strong up momentum as shown by 14 consecutive days close above MA5 cannot simply disappear all of sudden)，虽然我不能排除下周有2.5%+ pullback的可能性，但是我认为现在是个intermediate-term top的可能性并不大。下面的图是intermediate-term可能的price and time target，我并没有充分的证据证实这些target，所以仅仅是个concept而已。其中time target说明一下，因为非常多的cycle turn date due in April，因此April非常有可能是个重要的转折点。类似的multiple cycle turn date due in July 2009，那一次应该说是正式拉开了牛市的序幕，因为此前三月到六月的反弹，大部分机构还是很犹豫的。
下面的图是intermediate-term可能面临的风险，其中我认为最可靠的是Weekly EMA(13) and EMA(34) spread，由于地球引力的作用，最最可靠的indicator是均线之间的spread，现在我们已经平了历史第三的纪录，再往上，距历史记录，我估计SPX大约还有50点左右的涨幅，大约是上面intermediate-term price target图里的Cup with Handle text book target at 1428。
SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after February expiration week, Dow down 9 of last 12.
Also according to 6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch, the last 2 trading days of every month since August 2009 has been constantly bearish.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2011-2-19 09:34 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2011-2-19 09:42 PM
