02/24/2011 大盘回顾 （All pullbacks start with 3 consecutive down days）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 02/20 02/18 : 02/19 02/19 Next pivot date: 02/20

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. *6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered on 02/24. 0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: A few short-term long signal triggered on 02/23. BEARISH 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought. 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200). 02/14 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb Money Confidence spread is too large.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw. ST Model     *Long if up day tomorrow. The stop loss is 1.9*ATR(10). Short-term N/A Trend is DOWN. I hold partial short position overnight.

My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 will last for awhile but the 02/18 high will be visited again.

 

SHORT-TERM: THE 1ST DOWN LEG COULD HAVE COMPLETED

 

今天的intraday comment已经提到了，RSI positive divergence plus breakout trend line then back test the previous low then strong rebound是典型的reversal pattern，因此可能性比较大the very 1st down leg已经结束了，明天开始反弹。反弹的initial target是Fib 38.2，再往上走的话阻力就比较大了。下面的图还说明了另一种可能性，就是明天再次探底small lower low，所以今天如果盘中buy dip的话，注意这个小trick，别明天被stop run了后才想起来问候别人的长辈。

 

 

两个要特别说明的地方：

 

自2009年三月以来的rally，所以的回调都是从3 consecutive down days开始的，因此机会很大，如果明天就反弹的话，there sure will be the 2nd leg down。

 

 

6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB), 6.2.0a VIX Trading Signals (ENV), VIX long setup触发了。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 COULD LAST 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE, THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER

 

See 02/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK

 

See 02/18 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S	Testing MA(50).
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM		Testing MA(50).
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP	No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200), %B too high.
TLT		Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly	DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		Clear breakout on WTIC chart.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	02/09 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L	Testing MA(50).
XLF Weekly	UP
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP	BPMATE is way too overbought.

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

atrader

thanks

schmd2000

c3456

tonyshen

wilakenny

thanks!

leftright

michaelzhang

hifive

X中国陆军

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

happyface

thanks

开小差

thx, ding

skipjack

Thanks

dreampen

Thanks

jinr

ht2010

Thanks a lot!

neo

Waterloo168

littlevivi

班长，vix的那个能管多久啊？是按小时看还是天看？