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SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
Non-Stop |
02/24 S |
N/A |
02/23: Close long and sell short, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw. |
ST Model |
02/25 L |
Breakeven |
*Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat. |
Short-term |
*DOWN |
02/18 High |
Hold short position until stop loss being hit. | |
My Thoughts |
The pullback since 02/22 will last awhile but the 02/18 high will be visited in 69 calendar days on average. | |
SHORT-TERM: COULD JUST BE A SHORT-TERM DIP, INTERMEDIATE-TERM REMAINS BULLISH
今天SPY daily图上整了个Bearish Engulfing,suppose bearish reversal 79% times,不过back test since 2003,却显示此后very very bullish,除了下周没有明显的edge以外。因此我的猜测是测试02/24 low还是可能的(see today’s After Bell Quick Summary),但是最近的pullback可能仅仅是intermediate-term uptrend中的一个dip而已,没有证据表明这是something significant。这个结论,和我02/23 Market Recap中关于2.5%+ pullback after 40+ straight up days的统计是一致的。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 COULD LAST 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE, THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER
See 02/23 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: FIRST TRADING DAY IN MARCH COULD BE VERY BULLISH
See 02/25 Market Recap for more details. The March seasonality chart below is from Sentimentrader.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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