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[技术分析] 03/01/2011 大盘回顾 (Very Very Bullish Bearish Engulfing)

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发表于 2011-3-1 09:03 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw.
ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven *Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat.
Short-term *DOWN 02/18 High Hold short position until stop loss being hit.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 will last awhile but the 02/18 high will be visited in 69 calendar days on average.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD JUST BE A SHORT-TERM DIP, INTERMEDIATE-TERM REMAINS BULLISH

 

今天SPY daily图上整了个Bearish Engulfing,suppose bearish reversal 79% times,不过back test since 2003,却显示此后very very bullish,除了下周没有明显的edge以外。因此我的猜测是测试02/24 low还是可能的(see today’s After Bell Quick Summary),但是最近的pullback可能仅仅是intermediate-term uptrend中的一个dip而已,没有证据表明这是something significant。这个结论,和我02/23 Market Recap中关于2.5%+ pullback after 40+ straight up days的统计是一致的。

 

SPYShortTerm.png

BearishEngulfingBackTestSummary.png

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 COULD LAST 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE, THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER

 

See 02/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: FIRST TRADING DAY IN MARCH COULD BE VERY BULLISH

 

See 02/25 Market Recap for more details. The March seasonality chart below is from Sentimentrader.

 

MarchSeasonality.png

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly DOWN
XIU.TO 02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly ?
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 02/03 L
GDX Weekly UP
USO Clear breakout on WTIC chart.
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 02/09 S
XLE Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/09 S
XLB Weekly UP

  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

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发表于 2011-3-1 09:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 鲜花 鸡蛋

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发表于 2011-3-1 09:05 PM | 显示全部楼层
萨法!!!!!!!!!!!!
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:05 PM | 显示全部楼层
dddddddddddddddddddd
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:05 PM | 显示全部楼层
小三!!!!!!!!
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:06 PM | 显示全部楼层
萨法
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:07 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:08 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:10 PM | 显示全部楼层
ding
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:11 PM | 显示全部楼层
不能怨我,网页不听使唤,害得我不停地“炮死他”,“炮死他”,“炮死他”!
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
thx, ding
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:15 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:17 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:18 PM | 显示全部楼层
呵呵。
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:21 PM | 显示全部楼层


Thanks a lot!
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:22 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:23 PM | 显示全部楼层
Thanks.
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发表于 2011-3-1 09:25 PM | 显示全部楼层
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