03/02/2011 大盘回顾 （Huge rally tomorrow like what happened on Feb 1?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw. ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat. Short-term DOWN 02/18 High Hold short position until stop loss being hit.

My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 will last awhile but the 02/18 high will be visited in 69 calendar days on average.

 

SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION UNCLEAR, I’M BEARISH BIASED THOUGH

 

今天没啥好说的，所以After Bell Quick Summary就免了吧。短期方向不明，只能等看market是先向上突破还是先向下突破了，目前是都有可能。细心点的会发现今天和Jan 31很像，因此明天可能大涨特涨。我的猜测是可能这次不会重复Jan 31以后发生的事情，主要理由是今天的反弹price bar bodies overlap each other，因此可能已经完成了intraday的2 leg up，而不象Jan 31，intraday仅仅完成了1st leg up，几乎guarantee第二天会有2nd leg up。当然，这仅仅是speculation，一切还得看明天，所以let’s wait and see吧。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 COULD LAST 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE, THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER

 

See 02/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: FIRST TRADING DAY IN MARCH COULD BE VERY BULLISH

 

See 02/25 Market Recap for more details. For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP	No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly	DOWN
XIU.TO	02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		Clear breakout on WTIC chart.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	02/09 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	?	*Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

dreampen

沙发!   Thanks!

源济

michaelzhang

cw8888

songjiang

so early? cannot believe it!

IMeMyself

re

navybean

Thanks

happyface

thanks

nokia

大牛Steve

sfbayarea

老蛇没有方向感了。

ahdou

first page

hfang01

jWishbone

Thanks.

jpm

c3456

noenoe

faithflower

谢谢老大.
我猜还要猪一段时间.打底的意思.

dommy