03/03/2011 大盘回顾 （Could see a new high soon）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short, can wait for a few days to avoid whipsaw. ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat. Short-term *UP 02/18 High 02/24 Low Hold both long and short.

My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 will last awhile but the 02/18 high will be visited in 69 calendar days on average.

 

SHORT-TERM: DON’T EXPECT BIG UP TOMORROW, BUT NEW HIGH COULD BE JUST A MATTER OF TIME

 

今天的大涨，SPY虽然没有能够higher high，但是一般这样的大涨，由于up momentum很strong，因此很少有第二天就fail的，考虑到02/23 Market Recap和03/01 Market Recap的统计都是说the pullback仅仅是个dip，因此现在看起来可能性很大，we’ll see a new high soon。那么，new high后是不是就要go to Galaxy far far away呢？这个，目前还没有证据，所以只能走一步看一步了。一般原则，重要的顶部是reversal of reversal of reversal，因此如果new high后继续这样上下大幅震荡的话，牛牛还是要小心的。

 

 

明天是Non Farm Payroll day，generally bullish，不过由于今天TICK closed above 1000，所以明天可能也bullish不到哪里去。此外，老规矩，Non Farm Payroll day的intraday pattern是高开低走或者低开高走。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK SINCE 02/22 COULD LAST 4 WEEKS ON AVERAGE, THE 02/18 HIGH WILL BE REVISITED THEREAFTER

 

See 02/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: FIRST TRADING DAY IN MARCH COULD BE VERY BULLISH

 

See 02/25 Market Recap for more details. For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP	No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly	*UP?
XIU.TO	02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP
TLT		Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		*ChiOsc is way too high.
WTIC Weekly	UP
XLE	02/09 S
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	?	Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

wave

沙发，哈哈

stringzero

shafa2

acoust

bandeng,

dreampen

Thanks !

天天向上

shafa? hehe

cartier

dayuangone8

first page

whzdf

MtlJaysFan

netfire

leftright

胡同儿串子

haha, star wars fan

happyface

thanks

Diver

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Cobra 发表于 2011-3-3 18:00

hfang01

天地

老大预测的今天神准啊，幸好提前看到心里有所准备

slcgh

NCome

Thanks!!

jpm