03/04/2011 大盘回顾 （Trend is up, may not be bright in the intermediate-term）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 4 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06, (02/20 pivot top to be confirmed)

BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428. BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short. Short if for aggressive traders only. ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat. Short-term UP 02/18 High 02/24 Low Hold both long and short. This means the trend is unclear so wait.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE NEW HIGH SOON

 

The bottom line, trend is up both short-term and intermediate-term。为什么？因为到现在甚至在intraday chart上连个lower low都没有。考虑到02/23 Market Recap and 03/01 Market Recap的两个统计，加上后面intermediate-term session要提到的ISEE Equities Only Index closed above 200 while SPX down 0.7%+ could mean a bullish next few days，因此，我暂时维持we could see a new high soon的forecast。

 

 

4.1.3 Volatility Index (Weekly)，这个可能bullish for stocks，因为2 weekly Doji看着比较bearish (for VIX)。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT

 

几个理由支持我short-term可能还有的涨，但intermediate-term就难说的forecast (again，不是让你做空哈，the trend is up, no doubt)。

 

周五的下跌，比较特别的地方是retailers拼命buy dips，反映到ISEE Equities Only Index上就是astonishingly 275的reading。这种现象短期内，特别是下周一，bullish，但是2周内就不是很好玩了。

 

 

周五另一个比较特别的现象是，在散户拼命call的同时，大户则拼命OEX put，造成OEX put call ratio spike，这个，从短期看似乎bearish bias并不明显，但是如果看OEX Open Interest Ratio的话，至少下面会比较choppy，也就是我说的reversal of reversal or reversal，最终要小心sharp pullback。

 

 

此外，周五的Non Farm Payroll day，特别是red day也有很大几率意味着we’re around an intermediate-term top。

 

 

时间角度看，除了New Moon and Solar Term date (see table above)以外，又是Magic Day 6的时间窗口，所以也是说pivot date around。

 

 

最后，也许不是TA应该讨论的范围，也不算intermediate-term not bright的证据，只是个疑问而已，因为我很难想象，SPX go back to all time high的时候，commodity会涨到什么程度？下面的统计来自Bespoke，当然，YES WE CAN无所不能，所以可能历史不再会重复？

 

 

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	01/28 S
NDX Weekly	UP
IWM
IWM Weekly	UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly	UP
EEM
EEM Weekly	*UP?
XIU.TO	02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly	UP	*Too far above MA(200).
TLT		Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly	?
FXE
FXE Weekly	UP	*Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD
GLD Weekly	UP
GDX	02/03 L
GDX Weekly	UP
USO		*ChiOsc is way too high.
WTIC Weekly	UP	*Too far above BB top.
XLE	*03/04 L
XLE Weekly	UP	Too far above MA(200).
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly	?	Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change.
IYR
IYR Weekly	UP
XLB	02/09 S
XLB Weekly	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.

songjiang

sofa? Thanks a lot!

songjiang

再抢一个板凳！

lwmm

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德州牛仔

navybean

Thanks

longzhang

ajs

看来要猪几天了，等方向明确了再下手。。。

leftright

ahdou

first page

happyface

thanks and enjoy your weekend.

PacificLegend

源济

farmer01

nooutlier

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oldfox

lungfish

終於趕上一樓了！！！！！

Bencat

大牛Steve

atrader

thanks